美国财政政策与货币政策调整对中国经济的动态溢出效应——基于TVP-SV-VAR模型的实证研究

The Dynamic Spillover Effect of the Adjustment of Fiscal Policy and Monetary Policy of the United States on China's Economy:An Empirical Research Based on TVP-SV-VAR Model

作为拥有国际货币加持的全球第一大经济体和中国重要的贸易伙伴国,美国宏观经济政策的调整对中国经济具有显著影响。文章基于TVP-SV-VAR模型,对美国财政政策、货币政策、财政政策与货币政策协同对中国经济的动态溢出效应进行了探讨,对利率、汇率及资产价格等三个传导渠道进行了深入分析。研究发现,美国财政政策与货币政策具有协同效应。在不同时间跨度下及不同时期内,美国宏观经济政策通过不同渠道对中国经济产出及价格水平产生的影响存在异质性。未来中国应持续推进汇率制度改革,强化自身宏观经济政策的协调配合,创设应对美国宏观经济政策溢出效应的政策工具箱。

As the world's largest economy with international currency support and an important trading partner of China,the adjustment of macroeconomic policies of the United States has a significant impact on China's economy.Based on TVP-SV-VAR model,this paper investigates the dynamic spillover effect of fiscal policy,monetary policy and the coordination of fiscal and monetary policies of the United States on China's economy,and makes an in-depth analysis on the transmission channels of interest rate,exchange rate and asset price.The research shows that fiscal policy and monetary policy of the United States have synergistic effects.In different time spans and different periods,the impact of macroeconomic policies of the United States on China's economic output and price level through different channels is heterogeneous.In the future,China should continue to advance the reform of exchange rate system,strengthen the coordination of its own macroeconomic policies and create a policy toolbox to deal with the spillover effect of macroeconomic policies of the United States.