资本账户开放与系统性金融风险:基于金融发展水平的门限效应研究

Capital Account Opening and Systematic Financial Risks:A Study of Threshold Effect Based on Financial Development Level

文章基于2001~2017年全球31个国家金融机构的面板数据,运用门限回归模型实证研究了资本账户开放、金融发展水平对系统性金融风险的影响。研究表明:当金融发展水平低于门限值时资本账户开放会显著增加系统性金融风险,反之则影响不显著。不同金融发展程度下资本账户开放对于资本流动影响差异是导致系统性金融风险的重要原因。进一步研究发现,相较于金融市场建设,提升金融机构建设水平更能显著降低系统性金融风险。经对比,目前中国金融发展水平仍不适宜完全开放资本账户,必须加强金融机构建设,实行稳步可控的信贷调控政策,降低系统性金融风险隐患。

Based on the panel data of financial institutions in 31 countries around the world from 2001 to 2017,this paper empirically investigates the impact of capital account opening and financial development level on systematic financial risks by using the threshold regression model.The research shows that when financial development level is below the threshold value,capital account opening will significantly increase systematic financial risks,while conversely,the impact is not significant.The difference in the impact of capital account opening on capital flows under different financial development levels is an important reason for systematic financial risks.Further research reveals that compared with the construction of financial markets,improving the construction level of financial institutions can significantly reduce systematic financial risks.After comparison,the current financial development level in China is still not suitable for fully opening capital account.It is necessary to strengthen the construction of financial institutions and implement stable and controllable credit control policies to reduce systematic financial risks.