俄乌冲突对全球小麦供应链和中国市场的影响及内循环面临的挑战

The Impact of the Russia-Ukraine Conflict to the Global Wheat Supply Chain and China’s Domestic Market and the Challenges Faced in the Internal Circulation

俄乌冲突不仅通过小麦供应链本身,还通过能源和化肥等其他途径将小麦生产和流通领域面临的系统性风险传导至全球。中国国内小麦虽然供应充足,但仍然不可避免地受到国际市场小麦供给趋紧和涨价的冲击,最终表现为超出供需基本面的价格飙涨和波动。调整和优化中国国内小麦供给结构成为对冲外部危机的关键。当前中国小麦的低收益将阻碍产业化经营,增加弃农风险;小麦品种间的供需错配加剧“三高”矛盾;小麦口粮转饲用消费导致人均总消费量增加,并通过玉米、小麦比价引起库存随生猪养殖周期性波动;普遍使用的小麦品种自给率低估了国家保障小麦口粮消费绝对安全的能力,并加剧口粮过剩而饲料粮短缺的结构性失衡。因此,亟须多举措降低国内小麦生产成本、推进中国专用品种小麦的供给、促进小麦种植区域的种植结构向饲料粮调整、纠正小麦自给率统计口径误区,进一步提高中国小麦保障能力,为防范国际粮价飙涨和粮食短缺等危机向国内粮食市场传导建立防火墙。

The Russia-Ukraine conflict transmits the systemic risks faced by wheat production and circulation to the world not only through the wheat supply chain itself,but also through other ways such as energy and fertilizer.Although the China’s wheat supply is sufficient,it is still inevitably impacted by the tight supply and rising prices of wheat in the international market,leading to the final performance of the soaring price and price fluctuations that deviate from the supply and demand fundamentals.How to adjust and optimize the domestic wheat supply structure has become the key to hedge the external crisis.At present,the low net profit of wheat in China has hindered industrial operation and increase the risk of abandoning agriculture.The mismatch between supply and demand of wheat varieties has aggravated the contradiction of“three highs”.The conversion of wheat rations to feed consumption led to an increase in the total per capita consumption,and the stock fluctuated with the pig breeding cycle through the price comparison of corn and wheat.The commonly used self-sufficiency rate of wheat has underestimated the country’s ability to ensure the consumption of wheat rations and aggravated the structural imbalance of excess rations and shortage of feed grains.It is urgent to take multiple measures to reduce domestic wheat production costs,promote the supply of specialized wheat varieties in China,promote the adjustment of the planting structure in wheat planting areas to feed grains,and correct misconceptions in the statistical caliber of wheat self-sufficiency rate.So as to further enhance China’s wheat security capacity,and establish a firewall to prevent crises such as soaring international grain prices and food shortages from transmitting to the domestic grain market.