中国区域低碳技术创新产出时空演变及影响机理

Temporal and Spatial Evolution of Low-Carbon Technological Innovation Output and Its Infuence Mechanism in China

基于2013—2020年中国30个省份的空间面板数据,采用探索性空间数据分析方法(ESDA)对低碳技术创新产出的时空演变进行研究,运用地理加权回归模型(GWR)对低碳技术创新产出的影响机理进行探析。研究表明:(1)低碳技术创新产出具有较强的空间相关性,空间集聚现象明显;(2)东部地区的低碳技术创新产出较高,中西部地区低碳技术创新产出较低,各区域低碳技术创新产出呈现上升的趋势;(3)R&D人员投入、项目投入和经费投入促进低碳技术创新产出,且对东部地区的促进作用更大;(4)能源强度和碳排放强度对低碳技术创新产出的影响作用为负,且对西部地区的抑制作用更明显。本研究的政策建议为:发挥东部地区的经济优势,推动创新要素的合理流动,带动西部地区创新发展;改进西部地区的产业结构、能源结构,降低能源强度、碳排放强度,促进低碳技术创新;因地制宜制定相关政策,推动区域创新协调发展、联合减排、优化创新空间格局。

Based on the spatial panel data of 30 provinces in China from 2013 to 2020,this paper adopts the space exploratory spatial data analysis(ESDA)to study the spatio-temporal evolution of low-carbon technology innovation output and uses the geographical weighted regression model(GWR)to explore the influence mechanism of low-carbon technology innovation output.The research shows that:(1)Low-carbon technology innovation output has a strong spatial correlation,and the spatial agglomeration phenomenon is obvious.(2)The low-carbon technology innovation output in the eastern region is relatively high,while the low-carbon technology innovation output in the central and western regions is relatively low.The output of low-carbon technology innovation in these regions is rising.(3)R&D personnel input,project input and expenditure input promote the output of low-carbon technology innovation,and the promotion effect in the eastern region is more significant.(4)The influence of energy intensity and carbon emission intensity on the output of low-carbon technology innovation is negative,and the inhibition effect on the western region is more obvious.The policy recommendations of this paper are as follows:To give full play to the economic advantages of the eastern regions,promote the rational flow of innovation factors,and promote the innovation and development of the western regions;To improve the industrial and energy structure in the western regions,reduce energy intensity and carbon emission intensity,and promote innovation in low-carbon technologies;To formulate relevant policies in line with local conditions,promote coordinated development of regional innovation,jointly reduce emission,and optimize the spatial pattern of innovation.