黄河流域技术创新、产业集聚与大气污染的关系——基于69个地级市的PVAR模型分析

The Relationship Between Technological Innovation,Industrial Agglomeration and Air Pollution in the Yellow River Basin:PVAR Model Analysis Based on 69 Prefecture-Level Cities

论文利用2010—2020年黄河流域69个地级市大气污染、技术创新、产业集聚的面板数据,运用PVAR模型探究流域技术创新、产业集聚与城市大气污染间的动态传导关系。结果表明:技术创新对黄河流域城市大气污染具有正向抑制效应,且技术创新作用强度呈边际效用递增趋势;产业集聚对黄河流域上中下游大气污染的作用机制差异明显,其中,上游和中游产业集聚对其大气污染的负向效应明显,而下游产业集聚对其空气质量的改善具有积极影响;流域大气污染状况对于技术创新具有正向促进效应,但是对产业集聚的影响不明显。基于上述结果,论文对黄河流域城市大气污染治理提出系列建议,如依据“重点治理”与“逐步改善”相结合的原则,构建流域大气污染的“差异化”治理方案;构建新型绿色技术创新激励体系,充分挖掘技术创新的大气污染治理红利;上游和中游城市产业集聚要提升环境准入门槛和环境规制,避免成为“高排放、高能耗”产业转移的“污染避难所”等。

This paper uses the panel data of air pollution,technological innovation and industrial agglomeration in 69 prefecture-level cities in the Yellow River Basin from 2010 to 2020 to construct a PVAR model,and uses impulse response functions and variance decomposition methods to explore the dynamics conduction mechanism of technological innovation and industrial agglomeration on the air pollution in the Yellow River Basin.The results show that:technological innovation has a positive effect on air pollution.As time goes by,the intensity of technological innovation has shown an increasing marginal utility.Industrial agglomeration has a certain degree of negative effect on air pollution in the basin.Among them,the negative effect of industrial agglomeration on air pollution in the upstream and midstream of the basin is obvious,but the downstream industrial agglomeration has a positive impact on the improvement of air quality.The air pollution has a positive effect on technological innovation,but the impact on industrial agglomeration is not obvious.Based on the above results,this paper puts forward a series of suggestions for air pollution control in the Yellow River Basin,such as constructing a"differentiated"control plan for air pollution in the basin based on the principle of combining"key control"and gradual improvement";building a new green technology innovation incentive system,and fully tapping the air pollution control dividends of technological innovation;upstream and midstream cities should raise environmental access thresholds and environmental regulations,and industrial agglomeration development should avoid becoming"pollution shelters"for the transfer of high-emission and high-energy-consuming industries.