地方政府债务扩张与政策选择

Local Government Debt Expansion and Policy Options

在经济压力叠加背景中,中国出现房价疲软与地方政府债务激增并存现象,二者趋势的长期背离可能诱发系统性金融风险。通过建立包含异质性生产部门、地方政府的DSGE模型,讨论在实现稳房价目标基础上的地方政府债务风险化解问题。研究发现,当地方政府债务规模较小时,其土地融资行为能够推动房价与地价螺旋上涨。负向住房交易成本冲击可以通过地方政府的土地融资渠道刺激经济增长,由此引发地方政府债务规模扩张。相比于对预期房价作出反应的货币政策,逆周期地方政府贷款价值比的宏观审慎政策的优势在于能够基于地价与预期房价的变动关系来适时调整政策力度,有效抑制地方政府债务扩张的同时在稳地价、稳房价上的表现更佳。

Against the backdrop of mounting economic pressures,China is witnessing the simultaneous phenomenon of sluggish housing prices and a surge in local government debt,and the long-term deviation between these two trends may trigger systemic financial risks.By establishing a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium(DSGE) model incorporating heterogeneous production sectors and local governments,the issue of resolving local government debt risks while achieving the goal of maintaining stable housing prices is investigated.The findings document that when such debt is relatively small,local government land financing activities can drive a spiral increase in housing and land prices.Negative shocks to housing transaction costs can stimulate economic growth through local government's land financing channels,triggering an expansion in the aforementioned debt.Compared to monetary policies that react to expected housing prices,countercyclical local government loan-to-value ratios in macroprudential policies have an advantage in terms of their ability to adjust policy measures in a timely manner based on the changing relationship between land and expected housing prices.This allows for effective containment of debt expansion while demonstrating better performance in stabilizing land and housing prices.