渤海海域搜救困难度研究

Evaluation and analysis of maritime search and rescue difficulty in the Bohai Sea

为优化海上搜救资源部署、提高救助成功率,结合层次分析法与模糊综合评价法,从海上搜救的自然环境、辖区信息和行动评估3个方面选取11个指标构建海上搜救困难度评价模型,在验证模型可靠性的基础上,首次对渤海海域开展二维搜救困难度评价和研究。使用成功率来表征搜救困难度并进行时空分布特征分析,成功率越低则困难度越高。结果表明:渤海海上搜救成功率全年分布趋势为海岸线周边海域相对较低,渤海中部海域相对较高。整体来看,夏季成功率远高于其他季节,春、秋季次之,冬季最低。冬季辽东湾及秦皇岛沿岸海域成功率为全年和全海域最低。对渤海沿岸港口海域及中部海域各选1个长期观测的站点开展年变化特征分析,发现同一地点的搜救成功率年变化主要受水温影响,证实了冬季是搜救困难度最高的季节。综上所述,冬季渤海沿岸海域,尤其是辽东湾及秦皇岛沿岸海域为高困难度搜救区,需要加大日常巡逻管理,改善搜救系统部署。

To optimize resource deployment and improve the success rate of maritime search and rescue,this study carries out a two-dimensional evaluation and analysis of maritime search and rescue difficulty for the first time in the Bohai Sea.It combined the AHP method with fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method.Eleven factors related to the natural environment,district information and action assessment are selected to build a maritime search and rescue difficulty evaluation model.Success rate is used to characterize the difficulty,while the low success rate is associated with high difficulty and vice versa.The spatial and temporal distribution of success rate is analyzed based on the model verification.The results show that:the success rate is lower in the coastal waters and higher in the central Bohai Sea all the year round.Throughout the year,the success rate in the Bohai Sea is the highest in summer and the lowest in winter,while it′s similar in spring and autumn.In addition,the success rate in Liaodong Bay and the coastal waters along Qinhuangdao city in winter is the lowest during the whole year and in whole sea areas.Five long-term observation stations are chosen from four major ports in coastal waters and one buoy station in the central Bohai Sea,to analyze the annual variation.The annual variation of success rate is mainly affected by sea surface temperature in the same place,which confirms that the highest difficulty in the Bohai Sea appears in winter.In summary,the Liaodong Bay and the coastal waters along Qinhuangdao city are the most difficult search and rescue areas in winter,so daily patrols should be increased and the search and rescue resource should be optimized accordingly.