国家财政与疫后重振中国经济的战略构想

The Strategic Conception of National Finance and Post-epidemic Revitalization of China’s Economy

疫情过后中国经济面临的挑战不亚于2008年国际金融危机时外部需求崩溃的危机,它们共同的挑战都是最终消费有效需求不足导致生产过剩的问题,而非单纯的总需求不足,其原因就在于中国高效率投资的供给效应远超国外市场和国内私人部门吸收其产出的需求效应,在这种情况下,经济政策的重点应该是解决最终消费有效需求不足的问题,加大国家财政支出是其主要措施。2008年的“四万亿投资计划”错将投资而非解决最终消费有效需求不足问题作为政策重点,从而产生了新的生产过剩,新旧生产过剩的叠加引发了随后的紧缩,导致了经济增长率不断下降、企业负债率居高不下和失业增加,新冠疫情的冲击使这种局面更加严重,致使目前的中国经济存在着陷入“慢性萧条期”的危险。为了尽快摆脱这种困境并使中国经济重归“中高速增长”的轨道,我国在今后十年左右应该采取更加积极的财政政策,通过财政开支持续地和大幅度地增加劳动者收入特别是低收入群体的收入水平,提高公共服务消费水平,以解决最终消费有效需求不足问题,这也是解决目前失业问题的根本性途径。为此,中央财政支出方面可采取如下政策措施:较大范围地实施就业保障计划,大幅度增加公共服务的财政支出,通过中央政府的财政转移解决地方政府财政困难,并在预防通货膨胀的技术创新、可再生能源革命和下一次工业革命等方面进行战略性投资。

The challenges faced by the Chinese economy after the COVID-19 are no less than that brought about by the external demand collapse during the 2008 international financial crisis.Their common lies in the overproduction caused by insufficient effective demand for final consumption,rather than simply insufficient total demand.The reason is that the supply effect of China’s efficient investment far exceeds the demand effect that foreign markets and domestic private sectors absorb its output.In this case,the focus of economic policy should be to address the problem of insufficient effective demand for final consumption with increasing national fiscal expenditure as its main measure.The“four-trillion-yuan investment plan”in 2008 mistakenly focused on investment rather than insufficient effective demand for final consumption,which resulted in new overproduction.The superposition of old and new overproduction triggered the subsequent contraction,thus resulting in the continuous decline of economic growth rate,the high corporate debt ratio and the increased unemployment.The impact of the COVID-19 has made this situation even so serious that the current Chinese economy is in danger of falling into a“chronic depression period”.In order to quickly resolve this dilemma and return the Chinese economy to the track of“medium to high growth”,China should adopt more active fiscal policies in the next decade or so,i.e.we should,through fiscal support,continually and significantly increase the income level of workers,especially low-income groups,and enhance the level of public service consumption to solve the problem of insufficient effective demand for final consumption,which is also the fundamental way to solve the current unemployment problem.To this end,the Central government should take the following policy measures in terms of expenditure:implementing employment security plans on a large scale,significantly increasing fiscal expenditure on public services,solving local government financial difficulties through central government fiscal transfers,and making strategic investments in technology innovation,renewable energy revolution,and the next industrial revolution to prevent inflation.