准三边同盟:从戴维营峰会看美日韩合作的趋向与限度

The Quasi-Trilateral Alliance:Trends and Limits of U.S.-Japan-ROK Cooperation

随着戴维营峰会的召开,美日韩关系被认为迎来“历史性”提升机遇,三边同盟呼之欲出。此轮美日韩三边关系的拉紧主要源于日韩关系改善和内外环境的变化,三方相互利用、借重上升,联手维护美西方霸权的战略取向。戴维营峰会成果文件显示,美日韩三边合作将形成一套多层次的机制化安排,合作范围拓展至“印太”地区,合作领域突出军事安全和经济技术两手并重,通过创建新的对话合作机制,激活既有交流合作渠道,追求务实成效。美日韩三边关系中的固有短板和制约因素并未消失,受制于日韩矛盾及三方利益诉求差异等因素,美日韩难以在短期内建立条约性质的正式同盟关系,或将维持“准三边同盟”的“新常态”。

The Camp David Summit among the U.S.,Japan and ROK has been considered a“historic”opportunity to improve the trilateral alliance.The improvement of the trilateral relations is mainly due to the improvement of Japan-ROK relations and the changes in the internal and external environment.The three parties make use of each other and jointly safeguard the the U.S.hegemony.The trilateral cooperation will form a set of multi-level institutional arrangements,expand the scope of cooperation to the“Indo-Pacific”region,focus on military,economic and technological cooperation,and activate channels of and cooperation through the creation of new dialogue and cooperation mechanisms to pursue practical results.Due to the contradictions differences in interests of the three parties,it is difficult for them to establish a formal alliance in a short term,or they will maintain the“new normal sitution”of the quasi-trilateral alliance.