数字金融与地方政府隐性债务风险:空间溢出与政策效应

Digital Finance and Local Government Implicit Debt Risk :Spatial Spillovers and Policy Effects

数字金融作为数字技术与金融创新深度融合的产物,可以实现金融资源的跨时空配置,为化解地方政府隐性债务风险提供可能。数字金融的普惠性、靶向性和跨时空配置金融资源等特性使其成为化解地方政府隐性债务风险的重要工具。结合中国2011-2020年的省际面板数据,实证检验数字金融对地方政府隐性债务风险的空间影响、调节效应和政策效应可以表明,地方政府隐性债务风险在本地区数字金融发展下得到明显地缓释效应,同时邻近区域数字金融发展会进一步降低本地区政府隐性债务风险;其对地方政府隐性债务风险的缓释作用还受到地方财政自给能力的影响,以财政分权和政府事权不匹配导致的地方财政自给能力差异能够正向调节其缓释作用;此外,构建空间双重差分模型评估数字金融政策实施对地方政府隐性债务风险的影响,发现其缓释作用及空间溢出效应显著,但政策效应呈逐年减弱趋势。

Digital finance,as the product of the deep integration of digital technology and financial innovation,can real-ize the cross temporal and spatial allocation of financial resources,providing a possibility to mitigate the hidden debt risk of local governments.The pervasiveness,targeting,and cross temporal and spatial allocation features of digital finance make it an important tool for resolving local government implicit debt risks.Based on China's provincial panel data from 2011 to 2020,the empirical analysis of the spatial impact,regulatory effects,and policy effects of digital fi-nance on local government implicit debt risk reveals that the development of digital finance in a region has a significant mitigating effect on local government implicit debt risk,and the development of digital finance in neighboring regions further reduces the local governments implicit debt risk;its debt-relief effect on local government implicit debt risk is also influenced by local fiscal self-sufficiency.The differences in fiscal self sufficiency due to the mismatch between fiscal decentralization and government responsibilities positively regulate the debt relief effect;in addition,by constructing a spatial double difference model to evaluate the impact of digital finance policy implementation on lo-cal government implicit debt risk,it is found that the mitigating effect and spatial spillover effects are significant,but the policy effect weakens year by year.