基于决策树的输变电工程施工质量风险评估方法

Risk Assessment Method for Construction Quality of Power Transmission and Transformation Projects Based on Decision Tree

针对现有风险评估方法在对输变电工程施工质量风险评估时,存在评估结果与实际相差较大,无法为施工方案制定以及施工管理提供重要依据的问题,引入决策树,开展对输变电工程施工质量风险评估方法的设计研究。先选择输变电工程施工质量风险评估指标,构建施工质量风险决策树,并对每个风险因素分析;然后结合目标层、准则层和指标层设置思路,构建施工质量风险评估模型;最后确定风险发生可能性、风险损失的等级划分标准,并以此为基础,划分输变电工程施工质量风险等级,实现对施工质量风险的定性和定量评估。通过对比实验证明,新的评估方法在应用中可得到更符合实际的评估结果,可为后续施工管理提供更加可靠的依据。

In response to the problem of significant differences between the evaluation results and the actual situation in the existing risk assessment methods for the construction quality risk assessment of power transmission and transformation projects,which cannot provide important basis for the formulation of construction plans and construction management,this study introduces decision trees to carry out design research on the construction quality risk assessment method for power transmission and transformation projects.This study selects construction quality risk assessment indicators for power transmission and transformation projects,constructs a construction quality risk decision tree,and analyzes each risk factor.Then,combined with the setting ideas of the target layer,criterion layer,and indicator layer,a construction quality risk assessment model is constructed.In the end,the probability of risk occurrence and the classification criteria for risk losses are determined,and based on this,the construction quality risk level of power transmission and transformation projects is divided to achieve qualitative and quantitative evaluation of construction quality risks.Through comparative experiments,it has been proven that the new evaluation method can obtain more practical evaluation results in application,providing a more reliable basis for subsequent construction management.