我国空巢老人跌倒发生率的Meta分析

Incidence of falls among empty nesters in China: a meta-analysis

目的 系统评价我国空巢老人跌倒发生率,为预防空巢老人跌倒提供依据。方法 检索中国知网、万方数据知识服务平台、维普中文科技期刊数据库、Cochrane Library、Web of Science和PubMed等中英文数据库,收集建库至2022年8月发表的有关我国空巢老人跌倒的横断面研究。采用Stata 15.1软件进行Meta分析,分析我国空巢老人跌倒的合并发生率及其95%CI;采用逐篇剔除法进行敏感性分析,评价结局指标的稳定性;采用漏斗图评价发表偏倚。结果初期检索文献795篇,最终纳入17篇,样本量为5 468人。Meta分析结果显示,我国空巢老人跌倒发生率为23.0%(95%CI:16.6%~29.5%)。亚组分析结果显示,2016—2022年发表研究的空巢老人跌倒发生率为20.4%,高于2008—2015年发表研究的17.3%(P<0.05);西部地区空巢老人跌倒发生率为27.4%,高于东部地区的15.9%和中部地区的15.0%(P<0.05);城市空巢老人跌倒发生率为20.8%,高于农村的9.9%(P<0.05)。敏感性分析显示研究结果较为稳定,漏斗图显示存在一定发表偏倚。结论 我国空巢老年人跌倒发生率为16.6%~29.5%,需加强空巢老人跌倒危险因素的评估与预防。

Objective To systematically evaluate the incidence of falls among empty nesters in China,so as to provide the evidence for preventing falls among empty nesters.Methods Publications pertaining to cross-sectional studies of falls among empty nesters in China were retrieved from international and national databases,including CNKI,Wanfang Data,VIP,Cochrane Library,Web of Science and PubMed from inception to August,2022.Meta-analysis was per⁃formed using the software Stata 15.1,and the combined incidence and 95%CI of falls among empty nesters in China was analyzed.Sensitivity analysis was performed using the leave-one-out method to evaluate the stability of outcome in⁃dicators.In addition,the publication bias was evaluated using Funnel plot.Results Initially,795 articles were screened in the literature,and 17 articles were finally included,covering 5468 participants.Meta-analysis revealed that the incidence of falls among empty nesters in China was 23.0%(95%CI:16.6%-29.5%).Subgroup analysis showed that the incidence of falls among empty nesters published from 2016 to 2022 was higher than that from 2008 to 2015(20.4%vs.17.3%;P<0.05).The incidence of falls among empty nesters in western regions was higher than that in east⁃ern and central regions(27.4%vs.15.9%and 15.0%;P<0.05).The incidence of falls among empty nesters in urban ar⁃eas was higher than that in rural areas(20.8%vs.9.9%;P<0.05).Sensitivity analysis showed that the study results were stable,and the funnel plot identified some publication bias.Conclusion The incidence of falls among empty nest⁃ers in China was 16.6%to 29.5%,and it is recommended to strengthen the assessment and prevention of risk factors of falls among empty nesters.