江西省生境质量时空演化特征及预测

Spatio-temporal evolution characteristics and prediction of habitat quality in Jiangxi Province

生境质量关乎区域可持续发展和人类福祉,评估其时空演化特征和预测未来变化对生态文明建设和高质量发展具有重要意义。以江西省为研究区,利用InVEST模型和热点分析方法定量评估2000-2020年生境质量时空演化特征,结合PLUS模型模拟预测2020-2050年土地利用和生境质量变化。结果表明:(1)2000-2020年江西省有林地、灌木林地、疏林地、水田、旱地面积呈减少趋势,减少部分主要位于南昌市等城市边缘,转为城镇用地和其他建设用地。(2)江西省生境质量总体较好,均值呈微幅下降且加速下降的趋势,具有以南昌市等城市为中心、向外辐射提高和中部低、四周高、北部低、南部高的时空分异特点,20年内8.52%的区域生境质量得到改善,44.85%的区域发生退化,退化区域以生境质量低值区域为核心向外辐射。热点分析显示,在乡镇尺度上,生境质量与生境退化度在空间分布上具有相似的集聚特征,但高低值相反。(3)结合PLUS模型预测显示,2020-2050年江西省城镇用地、其他建设用地进一步急剧扩张,时空特征表现为环鄱阳湖扩张圈和萍乡市-宜春市-新余市-南昌市-抚州市-鹰潭市-上饶市东西向扩张带,生境质量均值保持下降趋势,退化区域呈现相似的"一环一带"时空特征。研究结果可为完善山水林田湖草系统治理制度和国土空间开发保护制度提供科学依据。

Habitat quality is related to regional sustainable development and human well-being.Assessing its spatio-temporal evolution characteristics and predicting future changes are of great significance to the construction of ecological civilization and high-quality development.Taking Jiangxi Province as the study area,the spatio-temporal evolution characteristics of habitat quality from 2000 to 2020 were quantitatively evaluated by using the InVEST model and hot spot analysis method,and the changes of land use and habitat quality from 2020 to 2050 were simulated and predicted by using the PLUS model.The results showed that:(1)from 2000 to 2020,the area of forest,shrub,sparse woodland land,paddy field and dry land in Jiangxi Province presented a decreasing trend,and the decreasing part was mainly located at the edge of Nanchang City and other cities,and turned to urban land and other construction land.(2)The overall habitat quality of Jiangxi Province is good,with a slight decline and accelerated decline in the mean value.It had the characteristics of spatio-temporal differentiation with Nanchang and other cities as the center,increased outward radiation and low in the middle,high around,low in the north and high in the south.Within 20 years,8.52%of the regional habitat quality has been improved,44.85%of the regions have been degraded,and the degraded regions radiated outward with low habitat quality as the core.Hot spot analysis showed that at the township scale,the spatial distribution of habitat quality and habitat degradation degree had similar clustering characteristics,but the high and low values were opposite.(3)According to the prediction results of PLUS model,the urban land and other construction land in Jiangxi Province would further expand sharply from 2020 to 2050.The spatio-temporal characteristics would be shown as the expansion circle around Poyang Lake and the East-West expansion belt from Pingxiang to Yichun to Xinyu to Nanchang to Fuzhou to Yingtan to Shangrao.The average value of habitat quality would maintain a downward trend,and the degraded areas would show similar spatio-temporal characteristics of"one ring and one belt".The research results can provide a scientific basis for improving the management system of mountain,water,forest,field,lake and grass system and the protection system of land and space development.