武威市手足口病流行病学特征分析及ARIMA预测

Epidemiological analysis and ARIMA prediction of hand,foot and mouth disease in Wuwei city

目的探讨2011—2021年甘肃省武威市手足口病(hand foot and mouth disease,HFMD)的发病规律,建立季节性自回归移动平均模型(autoregressive integrated moving average model,ARIMA),并预测武威市HFMD发病率,对当地的防控措施进行效果评估,为制定预防和控制策略提供参考依据。方法利用EXCEL 2019整理原始数据,计算月发病率,以描述流行病学方法分析流行病学特征;使用R 4.1.0软件建立HFMD月发病率的ARIMA模型,利用ARIMA模型进行模型拟合及预测分析。结果2011—2021年武威市累计报告HFMD病例8469例、年均报告发病率43.87/10万,其中男性5205例、占61.50%,女性3264例、占38.50%;以5岁以下组(占90.01%)和散居儿童(占63.10%)发病为主;2011—2021年武威市HFMD发病呈明显的季节性。模型构建结果显示,ARIMA(0,0,1)(2,1,1)_(12)为最优模型,其参数平均绝对比例误差(MASE)为0.892,均方根误差(RMSE)为5.066,平均绝对误差(MAE)为2.660,AIC为700.62,BIC为714.03;模型预测结果显示,预测值与观测值整体趋势变化一致,绝对误差最小0.16、最大11.68。结论ARIMA模型可较好地预测武威市HFMD的发病;应加强HFMD监测,实施健康教育与疫苗接种的综合策略,降低HFMD发病率。

Objective To investigate the incidence of hand,foot and mouth disease(HFMD)in Wuwei city of Gansu province from 2011 to 2021,establish an autoregressive integrated moving average model(ARIMA),predict the incidence of HFMD in Wuwei city,and to evaluate the effect of local prevention and control measures so as to provide references for the formulation of prevention and control strategies.Methods The original data was sorted out with EXCEL 2019.The monthly incidence rate was calculated,and the epidemiological characteristics were analyzed with descriptive epidemiological methods.The ARIMA model of monthly incidence of HFMD was established by R4.1.0 software for fitting of model and predictive analysis.Results From 2011 to 2021,a total of 8469 HFMD cases were reported in Wuwei city,with an average annual reported incidence rate of 43.87/100000,including 5205 males(61.50%)and 3264females(38.50%).Most cases were under 5 years old(90.01%)and scattered children(63.10%).The incidence of HFMD was obviously seasonal in Wuwei city from 2011 to 2021.The results of model construction showed that ARIMA(0,0,1)(2,1,1)_(12) was the optimal model,with the MASE of 0.892,RMSE of 5.066,MAE of 2.660,AIC of 700.62 and BIC of 714.03 in the parameters.The prediction results of the model showed that the overall trend of the predicted value was consistent with the observed value,with the minimum absolute error of 0.16 and the maximum absolute error of 11.68.Conclusions The incidence of HFMD can be predicted in Wuwei city by the ARIMA model.The surveillance of HFMD should be strengthened,and the comprehensive strategies of health education and vaccination should be implemented to reduce the incidence of HFMD.