突发公共卫生应急响应对其他感染性腹泻的预防保护作用

The prevention and protective effect of emergent public health response on other infectious diarrhea

目的了解突发公共卫生应急响应对其他感染性腹泻发病的预防保护作用。方法选取《中国疾病预防控制信息系统》中杭州市上城区2010—2021年其他感染性腹泻报告数据,使用圆形分布法对上城区2010—2019年5岁以下和5岁及以上群体其他感染性腹泻发病时间聚集性进行分析。运用描述性流行病学法分析2020—2021年突发公共卫生应急响应状态下上城区5岁以下和5岁及以上群体其他感染性腹泻发病高峰变化。根据2010—2019年发病数据构建最优求和自回归移动平均(ARIMA)乘积季节模型对上城区2020年非应急响应状态下其他感染性腹泻发病情况进行预测,将预测结果与2020年同期真实发病数据进行比较。结果2010—2019年,上城区5岁以下和5岁及以上群体其他感染性腹泻发病均为单峰分布,高峰日期分别为12月17日和7月28日。2020—2021年COVID-19疫情突发公共卫生应急响应后,5岁及以上群体发病无明显高峰,5岁以下儿童发病高峰较往年明显推迟。最优ARIMA模型分析显示,2020年5岁以下和5岁及以上群体其他感染性腹泻实际发病率较预测发病率分别下降63.76%和41.74%。结论突发公共卫生应急响应采取的各项防控措施或对预防其他感染性腹泻的发病有一定的保护作用。

ObjectiveTo understand the prevention and protective effect of public health emergency response on other infectious diarrhea.MethodsData of other infectious diarrhea in Shangcheng District,Hangzhou City from 2010 to 2021 were selected from the China Disease Control and Prevention Information System.The round distribution method was used to analyze the time aggregation of other infectious diarrhea in children under 5 years old and the population aged 5 and above in Shangcheng District from 2010 to 2019.The descriptive epidemiological method was used to analyze the peak changes of other infectious diarrhea in children under 5 years old and the population aged 5 and above in this area under the state of public health emergency response from 2020 to 2021.Based on the incidence data from 2010 to 2019,the optimal summation autoregressive moving average(ARIMA)product seasonal model was constructed to predict the incidence of other infectious diarrhea in the region in 2020 under non-emergency response conditions,and the predicted results were compared with the actual data in the same period in 2020.ResultsFrom 2010 to 2019,the incidence of other infectious diarrhea in children under 5 years old and other groups aged 5 and above in Shangcheng District was unimodal,with the peaks at December 17th and July 28th,respectively.From 2020 to 2021,after the public health emergency response to the outbreak of COVID-19,there was no significant peak of the incidence among the population aged 5 years and above,and the peak of the incidence among children under 5 years old was significantly delayed compared with previous years.The optimal ARIMA model showed that the actual incidence rate of other infectious diarrhea in children under 5 years old and groups aged 5 years and above in 2020 decreased by 63.76%and 41.74%,respectively compared with the predicted incidence rates.ConclusionsThe preventive and control measures taken in the emergency response to public health emergencies may have a prevention effect on other infectious diarrhea.