经济政策不确定性对企业债务期限结构的非线性影响

The Nonlinear Effects of Economic Policy Uncertainty on Corporate Debt Maturity Structure

基于代理成本理论和权衡理论构建经济政策不确定性影响企业债务期限结构的理论模型,然后使用2007—2021年中国上市公司季度数据进行实证检验。理论模型的结论是,银行在经济政策不确定性较低时向企业发放长期贷款、在经济政策不确定性较高时向企业发放短期贷款。实证研究支持理论模型的结论,随着经济政策不确定性升高,长期债务占比先上升后下降。考虑到测量误差、遗漏变量等内生性问题后,上述结论仍然显著成立。异质性分析发现,经济政策不确定性对长期债务占比的影响由正转负的临界值在小企业、民营企业、市场化程度较低地区较小;在大企业、国有企业、市场化程度较高地区较大。

Based on the agency cost theory and the trade-off theory,this paper firstly builds a theoretical model to illustrate the effects of economic policy uncertainty on corporate debt maturity structure.Then it uses the quarterly data of China's listed companies from 2007 to 2021 to conduct empirical tests.The findings of the theoretical model indicate that banks issue long-term loans tofirmswhen economic policy uncertainty is low and short-term loans to firms when economic policy uncertainty is high.The empirical study confirms the conclusion of the theoretical model:with the raising of economic policy uncertainty,the proportion of long term debt will first rise then descend.Considering the endogenous problems such as measurement error and omitted variables,the above conclusion is still significantly valid.The heterogeneity analysis reveals that the critical value of the effects of economic policy uncertainty on the proportion of long-term debt from positive to negative is lower in small firms,private firms and firms located in the regions with low degree of marketization,while it is higher in large firms,state-owned firms and firms located in regions with higher degree of marketization.