数字经济产业的税收和投资溢出效应研究——基于上海CGE模拟分析

A Research on the Taxation and Investment Spillover Effect of Digital Economy Industry:Based on Shanghai CGE Simulation Analysis

数字经济方兴未艾,逐渐成为国民经济增长的新动力,而财政政策的科学精准发力也将有力推动数字经济产业在高质量发展过程中不断提质增效。为考察数字经济产业部门的财政效应,文章以数字化转型发展速度较快的上海地区为例,通过转换系数矩阵编制上海市数字经济社会核算矩阵,并以此为基础构建区域可计算一般均衡模型。为有效保留先验信息,我们使用CGE-SAM-GRAS方法进行参数估计,针对数字产业化和产业数字化部门,模拟并分析3种情景下实施税收和投资财政政策的影响。结果显示,数字产业化部门降低税收和增加投资均能产生正面溢出效应。总体上,税收的效果要好于投资,且税收优惠有利于提高工业部门的产出,增加投资则更有利于促进服务业发展。税收降低5%,所有部门的产出平均提高0.443%,数字产业化(工业)部门的产出提高2.601%,金融业部门的产出平均提高0.185%;投资增加5%,所有部门的产出平均提高0.282%,数字产业化(服务业)部门的产出提高2.912%,金融业部门的产出平均提高0.057%。遗憾的是,由于数字技术与传统产业的融合不足,对产业数字化实施投资政策的溢出效应相对较弱。

The digital economy is in the ascendant and has gradually become a new driving force for economic growth.Scientific fiscal policies will help to improve the quality and efficiency of the digital economy and achieve high-quality development.In order to examine the financial effect of the digital economy industry sector,this paper takes Shanghai,where the digital economy is developing rapidly,as an example,compiles the Shanghai digital economy social accounting matrix through the transformation coefficient matrix,and builds a regional computable general equilibrium model with the regional trade characteristics.In order to effectively retain prior information,we use the CGE-SAM-GRAS method for parameter estimation to simulate and analyze the impact of implementing taxation and investment fiscal policies under the scenarios of a 5%reduction in tax revenue in the digital industrialization sector,a 5%increase in investment in the digital industrialization sector,and a 5%reduction in tax revenue in the industrial digitization sector for both digital industrialization and industrial digitization sectors.The results of the study show that both tax reduction and investment increase in the digital industrialization sector can produce a positive spillover effect.In general,tax policies outperform investment policies and the tax benefits favor higher output in the industrial sector,while increased investment is more beneficial in promoting the service sector.A 5%reduction in tax revenue in the digital industrialization sector increases output by an average of 0.443%in all sectors,2.601%in the digital industrialization(industry)sector,and 0.185%in the financial sector;a 5%increase in investment increases output by an average of 0.282%in all sectors,2.912%in the digital industrialization(services)sector,and 0.057%in the financial sector on average.Unfortunately,due to the insufficient integration of digital technology and traditional industries,the spillover effect of investment policies on industrial digitalization is relatively weak.Therefore,we suggest that when formulating fiscal policies,the characteristic and spillover effect of each industry in the digital economy should be considered,and differentiated taxation and investment policies should be implemented for the digital industrialization and industrial digitization sectors,so as to give full play to the positive impact of the spillover effect and achieve sustainable development of the digital economy.