1990—2019年江苏省胆囊和胆道恶性肿瘤疾病负担及变化趋势分析

Analysis on disease burden and changing trend of malignant tumors of gallbladder and biliary tract in Jiangsu Province from 1990-2019

目的分析1990—2019年江苏省胆囊和胆道恶性肿瘤(以下简称胆道肿瘤)疾病负担及变化趋势,以了解其现状和流行趋势,为制定防控措施提供参考依据。方法利用2019年全球疾病负担(global burden of disease,GBD)研究结果,选取发病率、死亡率、伤残调整寿命年(disability adjusted of life years,DALY)、早死损失寿命年(years of life lost,YLL)和伤残损失寿命年(years lost due to disability,YLD)等疾病负担指标,应用GBD 2019全球标准人口对相关指标进行标化,采用Joinpoint模型计算年度变化百分比(annual percentage change,APC)分析胆道肿瘤疾病负担的变化趋势。结果2019年江苏省胆道肿瘤发病共4055例,死亡共3105例。1990—2019年,发病率从1.34/10万上升至4.92/10万,死亡率从1.24/10万上升至3.76/10万,上升趋势均有统计学意义(APC=5.55%、4.81%,均P<0.05),标化发病率、标化死亡率、标化DALY率、标化YLL率和标化YLD率均呈上升趋势(APC=2.63%、1.71%、1.71%、1.71%和2.74%,均P<0.05)。结论1990—2019年江苏省胆道肿瘤发病率、死亡率呈上升趋势,疾病负担沉重,应加强胆道肿瘤的筛查和防治工作。

Objective To analyze the disease burden and trends of malignant tumors of the gallbladder and biliary tract(here in after referred to as biliary tract tumors)in Jiangsu Province from 1990 to 2019,in order to understand the current situation and epidemic trend,and provide scientific basis for the formulation of prevention and control measures.Methods Using the results of the 2019 global burden of disease(GBD)study,disease burden indicators such as morbidity,mortality,disability adjusted of life years(DALY),years of life lost(YLL)and years lost due to disability(YLD)were selected.The GBD 2019 global standard population was used to standardize the relevant indicators,and the Joinpoint model was used to calculate the annual percentage change(APC)to analyze the changing trend of the disease burden of biliary tract tumors.Results In 2019,there were 4055 cases of biliary tract tumors in Jiangsu Province and 3105 deaths.From 1990 to 2019,the incidence rate increased from 1.34/100000 to 4.92/100000,and the mortality rate increased from 1.24/100000 to 3.76/100000,both the upward trends were statistically significant(APC=5.55%,4.81%,both P<0.05),the standardized incidence rate,standardized mortality rate,standardized DALY rate,standardized YLL rate and standardized YLD rate all showed an upward trend(APC=2.63%,1.71%,1.71%,1.71%,2.74%,all P<0.05).Conclusion From 1990 to 2019,the incidence and mortality of biliary tract tumors in Jiangsu Province show a significant upward trend,and the disease burden is heavy,so the screening and prevention of biliary tract tumors should be strengthened.