北京市朝阳区乙型肝炎血清标志物年龄–时期–队列模型分析

Age-period-cohort model of hepatitis B serum markers in Chaoyang district,Beijing

目的探讨北京市朝阳区常住人群乙型肝炎(乙肝)病毒血清标志物流行情况随年龄、时期、出生队列等影响因素的变化趋势。方法分别于2010年、2015年、2020年按照多阶段整群随机抽样的方法,在北京市朝阳区1~75岁常住人口中进行抽样,收集其人口学信息的同时采集静脉血3~5 mL,使用化学免疫发光法进行乙肝表面抗原(HBsAg)、乙肝表面抗体(HBsAb)、乙肝核心抗体(HBcAb)等检测,运用年龄–时期–队列模型和内生因子法分别估计HBsAg阳性率、HBsAb阳性率和乙肝感染率的年龄、时期、队列等效应。结果三次调查显示朝阳区常住居民HBsAg阳性率差异无统计学意义(标化率2.61%、2.50%、2.52%,P=0.830,χ^(2)=0.374)。乙肝感染率的年龄–时期–队列效应差异有统计学意义,随年龄增加先增大后减小、40~岁年龄组最高,队列暴露风险随出生年代增加而减小。结论北京市朝阳区HBsAg阳性率处于乙肝中流行区水平;乙肝暴露风险随年龄增加先增大后减小,随出生队列的增加而减小。

Objective To investigate the prevalence of hepatitis B serum markers in different age groups,periods and birth cohorts in Chaoyang district of Beijing.Methods In 2010,2015 and 2020,residents aged 1–75 years,who had been lived in Chaoyang District more than 6 months,were selected with multistage cluster random sampling to conduct questionnaire surveys,and blood samples(3–5 mL)were collected from them for the detections of hepatitis B virus surface antigen(HBsAg),hepatitis B virus surface antibody(HBsAb)and hepatitis B virus core antibody(HBcAb)respectively.The age-period-cohort model and intrinsic estimator algorithm were used to estimate the effects of age,period and cohort on HBsAg positive rate,HBsAb positive rate and hepatitis B infection rate respectively.Results The HBsAg positive rate in residents in Chaoyang in 2010,2015 and 2020 showed no significant differences with the standardized rates of 2.61%,2.50%and 2.52%,respectively(P=0.830,χ^(2)=0.374).The age-period-cohort effect on hepatitis B virus infection was significant.The hepatitis B infection rate firstly increased and then decreased with age,with the highest rate in the 40~years old group.The exposure risk of cohort decreased with birth years.Conclusion HBsAg positive rate was at a moderate level in Chaoyang.Hepatitis B exposure risk firstly increased and then decreased with age and decreased with cohort.