数字金融对县域经济韧性的影响研究

The Impact Digital Financecounty Economic Resilience

本文基于2014-2020年中国1453个县域的面板数据,实证分析数字金融对县域经济韧性的影响及其内在机理。研究结果表明:数字金融能够显著增强县域经济韧性,内生性和稳健性检验结果表明以上结论仍然成立。机制分析表明,数字金融能通过缩小城乡收入差距、提高资本配置效率和促进产业结构升级提升县级经济韧性水平。异质性结果表明,数字金融对中东部县、大型县和金融排斥程度较强县的经济韧性水平的提升作用较大。数字金融对县域经济韧性的影响还具有双重门槛效应,当数字金融发展水平较弱时,对县域经济韧性促进作用较小;而当数字金融发展水平跨过第一门槛和第二门槛后,其对县域经济韧性的促进效应明显增强。为此,本文提出加大数字金融普及力度、鼓励科技创新、结合县域特点因地制宜、科学施策,同时也需加强对数字金融的监管。

Based on panel data from 1453 counties from 2014 to 2020,this study empirically analyzes the impact of digital finance on the resilience of county economies and its underlying mechanisms.The research results indicate that digital finance can significantly enhance the resilience of county economies,and the results of endogeneity and robustness tests indicate that the above conclusions are still valid.Mechanism analysis shows that digital finance can enhance the resilience level of county-level economies by narrowing the urban-rural income gap,improving capital allocation efficiency,and promoting industrial structure upgrading.The heterogeneity results indicate that digital finance has a strong impact on enhancing the economic resilience level of counties in the central and eastern regions,large counties,and counties with strong financial exclusion.In addition,the impact of digital finance on the resilience of county economies also has a dual threshold effect.When the development level of digital finance is weak,the promotion effect on the resilience of county economies is relatively small;When the development level of digital finance crosses the first and second thresholds,the promoting effect on the resilience of the county economy is significantly enhanced,and the impact shows a marginal increasing trend.Therefore,this article proposes the following suggestions;We need to increase the popularization of digital finance,encourage technological innovation,adapt to local conditions based on county characteristics,and implement scientific policies.At the same time,we also need to strengthen the supervision of digital finance.