PM_(2.5)组分对体质指数的长期效应研究

Long-term effect of fine particulate matter components on body mass index

目的探究细颗粒物(Fine particulate matter,PM_(2.5))组分黑碳、铵盐、硫酸盐、硝酸盐、有机物对体质指数(body mass index,BMI)的长期效应。方法基于中国健康与养老追踪调查(China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study,CHARLS)2011年和2015年的数据库中4717名≥45岁的中老年人个体资料,应用贝叶斯核机器回归(Bayesian kernel machine regression,BKMR)探究黑碳、铵盐、硫酸盐、硝酸盐、有机物对BMI的单独效应、交互作用及其联合效应。结果硫酸盐的后验包含概率(posterior inclusion probabilities,PIP)为0.99,黑碳PIP值为0.94,铵盐PIP值为0.80,三种成分均与BMI显著有关。当其余四种变量固定在P_(25)、P_(50)、P_(75)时,黑碳每增加1个IQR,BMI水平分别上升1.15(95%CI:-0.03,2.33)、1.45(95%CI:0.41,2.49)、1.61(95%CI:0.47,2.75)kg/m^(2)。将其他成分固定在P_(25)、P_(50)、P_(75)时,铵盐每增加1个IQR,BMI水平分别上升1.12(95%CI:-0.50,2.74)、1.33(95%CI:-0.16,2.82)、1.51(95%CI:0.003,3.02)kg/m^(2)。将其他成分固定在P_(25)、P_(50)、P_(75)时硫酸盐每增加1个IQR,BMI水平与其呈负相关,效应值分别为-2.66(95%CI:-4.07,-1.25)、-2.59(95%CI:-3.84,-1.34)、-2.36(95%CI:-3.78,-0.94)kg/m^(2)。联合效应结果发现PM_(2.5)混合组分联合暴露与BMI水平总体呈正相关。结论本研究发现黑碳、铵盐单独暴露会提高中国中老年人的BMI水平,PM_(2.5)组分联合暴露与BMI之间也呈正相关关系,因此要加强对PM_(2.5)及其成分黑碳、铵盐的防控。

Objective To investigate the long-term effect of fine particulate matter(PM_(2.5))components of black carbon,ammonium,sulfate,nitrate and organic matter on body mass index(BMI).Methods A total of 4717 middle-aged and elderly individuals,aged no less than 45 years,were selected from China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study database in 2011 and 2015.Bayesian kernel machine regression was performed to investigate the individual effects,interactions,and combined effects of black carbon,ammonium,sulfate,nitrate and organic matter on BMI.Results The result showed that sulfate,black carbon and ammonium had a posterior inclusion probability(PIP)of 0.99,0.94,and 0.80,respectively,suggesting that all three components were significantly associated with BMI.When the other four components were fixed at the 25th,50th,and 75th percentiles,for every IQR increase in black carbon,BMI was increased by 1.15(95%CI:-0.03,2.33),1.45(95%CI:0.41,2.49),and 1.61(95%CI:0.47,2.75)kg/m^(2),respectively.When the other four components were fixed at the 25th,50th,and 75th percentiles,for every IQR increase in ammonium,BMI was increased by 1.12(95%CI:-0.50,2.74),1.33(95%CI:-0.16,2.82),and 1.51(95%CI:0.003,3.02)kg/m^(2),respectively.When the other four components were fixed at the 25th,50th,and 75th percentiles,BMI was negatively correlated with every IQR increase in sulfate,with specific effect values of-2.66(95%CI:-4.07,-1.25),-2.59(95%CI:-3.84,-1.34),and-2.36(95%CI:-3.78,-0.94)kg/m^(2),respectively.The result of combined effect showed that the combined exposure to mixed PM_(2.5)components was positively correlated with overall BMI.Conclusion Exposure to black carbon or ammonium alone may increase BMI level in middle-aged and elderly people in China,and combined exposure to PM_(2.5)components is also positively correlated with BMI.Therefore,it is necessary to strengthen the prevention and control of PM_(2.5)exposure,especially exposure to black carbon and ammonium.