个人所得税减免、劳动供给与收入分配——基于2018年个税改革的准自然实验研究

Individual Income Tax Reduction,Labor Supply and Income Distribution:A Quasi-natural Experimental Study Based on the 2018 Individual Income Tax Reform

本文以2018年个税改革为准自然实验,采用2015—2019年三期CHFS数据和双重差分法实证分析个人所得税减免的劳动供给效应,并拓展分析其对收入分配的影响。研究表明:个税减免对劳动供给的激励效应与税收减免程度呈正相关关系。异质性分析发现,税额减免对中低收入组的劳动供给有显著的正影响,而对中高收入组的劳动供给影响不显著。从影响机制来看,个税减免的劳动供给效应使中低收入群体税后劳动收入增加,有助于增强个税调节收入分配的作用。

Based on the quasi-natural experiment of the individual income tax reform in 2018,this paper uses the CHFS data of the three periods from 2015 to 2019 and DID method to empirically analyze the labor supply effect of individual income tax reduction and its impact on income distribution.The research shows that the impact of individual income tax reduction on labor income is positively correlated with the degree of tax relief.Heterogeneity analysis shows that tax reductions have a significant positive impact on the labor income of low and middle-income groups,but has no significant impact on the labor supply of the middle and high-income group.From the perspective of the impact mechanism,the labor supply effect of personal tax reduction will increase the after-tax labor income of low and middle-income groups,which will help strengthen the role of individual tax in regulating income distribution.