新冠肺炎疫情对我国涉林上市公司经营绩效的影响研究——基于断点回归和文本挖掘的实证分析

Impact of COVID-19 on the Operating Performance of China's Forest-Related Listed Companies and Related Countermeasures:An Empirical Analysis Based on Regression Discontinuity and Text Mining

基于2018-2021年我国涉林上市公司财务报告数据,运用断点回归方法和LDA主题聚类模型,分析新冠肺炎疫情对我国涉林上市公司经营绩效的影响。断点回归的研究结果表明,新冠肺炎疫情的暴发直接导致我国涉林上市公司在2020年第一季度经营业绩明显下降。主题聚类的研究结果揭示,经营绩效下降的原因主要是木浆、木材等原材料短缺且价格上涨;国内外物流运输受阻;复产复工延迟造成部分企业运转困难且成本负担较重;林产品市场需求短期内受到抑制,消费者购买欲望降低导致客户订单不足等。随着国内疫情防控成效逐步巩固,涉林企业经营业绩逐渐回暖。对“经营业绩变动主要影响因素”语料进行主题聚类发现经营业绩回暖的主要原因包括:企业复工复产后供应链逐渐恢复正常运转,优化产能配置以提高生产效率,扩展营销模式,加快数字化进程等。最后,基于我国涉林上市公司面临的具体困境并结合部分企业已采取的有效措施提出管理建议。

Based on the financial reports data of China's forest-related listed companies from 2018 to 2021,the impact of COVID-19 on the operating performance of these companies is analyzed by using regression discontinuity method and LDA topic model.The regression discontinuity analysis shows that the outbreak of COVID-19 has directly led to a significant decline in the operating performance of these companies in the first quarter of 2020.The results of thematic clustering reveal that the main reasons for the decline in business performance include the shortage and rising prices of raw materials such as wood pulp and wood,and the obstruction of domestic and international logistics and transportation.The delay of resumption of production and work caused difficulties in the operation of some enterprises and heavy cost burden.The market demand for forest products was restrained in the short term,and the customer orders were insufficient due to the decrease of consumers'purchase desire.With the gradual consolidation of the effectiveness of domestic epidemic prevention and control,the business performance of forest-related enterprises has gradually warmed up.Through thematic clustering of the corpus of"main factors influencing business performance changes",it is found that the main reasons for the warming of business performance are:after the resumption of work and production,the supply chain has gradually returned to normal operation;capacity allocation is optimized to improve production efficiency;the marketing mode is expanded and the digital process is accelerated.Based on the specific difficulties faced by China's forest-related listed companies and combined with the effective measures taken by some enterprises,this paper puts forward some management suggestions.