基于灰色理论系统的西非海域捕捞渔获量预测

Catch prediction off the coast of West Africa based on grey theory system

西非海域包括中东大西洋和东南大西洋两个渔区,是全球重要的渔业生产区域,科学预测其未来渔获量变化趋势,有利于该海域渔业资源的科学管理和开发。根据2000—2020年联合国粮农组织(FAO)提供的渔获量数据,采用灰色关联分析法和灰色预测理论,分别分析影响中东大西洋和东南大西洋总渔获量的主要渔获类别,建立多种GM (1,N)模型并进行比较分析,同时利用2018—2020年渔获量数据进行验证,获得最优GM(1,N)模型预测2021—2025年中东大西洋和东南大西洋总渔获量。研究分析发现:两海域最优预测模型均为GM(1,6),模型预测值与原始值的灰色关联系数均最大,分别为0.825和0.867,平均相对误差均为最小,分别为2.705%和1.734%;2018—2020年渔获量预测平均相对误差分别为4.63%和8.24%;2021—2025年中东大西洋和东南大西洋总渔获量预测值分别为497.67万~588.79万t和138.20万~147.41万t。研究认为:中东大西洋总渔获量在十四五期间最多增长约为48万t,增长幅度较小,建议加强资源养护、管控捕捞规模,制定和实施禁渔期等有效管理养护措施,建立科学合理渔业合作机制;东南大西洋总渔获量呈平稳波动状态,建议加强重点鱼种的养护管理,深化区域渔业合作,适当扩大捕捞海域范围,实现渔业可持续利用。

The coast of West Africa,including the Eastern Central Atlantic and Southeast Atlantic,is an important fishery production area in the world.Scientific prediction of the change trend of its catch in the future is conducive to the scientific management and development of fishery resources in this area.Based on the catch data provided by the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations(FAO)from 2000 to 2020,the main catch categories affecting the total catch of the Eastern Central Atlantic and Southeast Atlantic were analyzed by grey correlation analysis and grey prediction theory,and a variety of GM(1,N)models were established for comparative analysis.The optimal GM(1,N)model successfully predicted the total catch of the Eastern Central Atlantic and Southeast Atlantic from 2021 to 2025 by the catch data from 2018 to 2020 catch data for validation.The results showed that the optimal prediction model of the two sea areas is GM(1,6).The grey correlation coefficients between the predicted value and the original value are the greatest,which are 0.825 and 0.867,respectively.And the average relative errors are the smallest,which are 2.705%and 1.734%,respectively.The average relative errors of the prediction catches from 2018 to 2020 were 4.63%and 8.24%,respectively.The predicted total catch values for the Eastern Central Atlantic and Southeast Atlantic from 2021 to 2025 are 497.67×10^(4)-588.79×10^(4)tons and 138.20×10^(4)-147.41×10^(4)tons,respectively.It is believed that the maximum increase of the total catch in the Eastern Central Atlantic during the 14th Five-Year Plan is about 48×10^(4)tons,with a relatively low growth rate.It is suggested to strengthen the conservation of resources,control the scale of fishing,formulate and implement effective management and conservation measures such as the fishing ban period,and establish a scientific and reasonable fishery cooperation mechanism.The total catch of the Southeast Atlantic fluctuates steadily.It is suggested to strengthen conservation and management of key fish species,deepen regional fishery cooperation,and appropriately expand fishing areas to achieve green development.