基于贝叶斯网络的危化品运输风险模糊综合评估研究

Study on Fuzzy Comprehensive Assessment of Dangerous Chemicals Transportation Risk Based on Bayesian Network

危化品运输风险具有不确定性,不易量化等特点,为了更好地对危险品运输风险进行量化评估,从人员、货物、设施设备、安全管理和运输环境等五个方面提取关键指标,建立了危化品运输风险评估指标体系;将贝叶斯网络评估法和模糊综合评估法相结合,从危化品运输风险发生概率与危化品运输风险损失程度这两方面综合考虑,建立了危化品运输风险评估模型。以A危化品企业为例进行评估,针对评估结果提出对应的预防和监管建议,相关研究有利于对危化品企业运输风险进行更全面的量化评估,从而提高应急管理能力。

In order to better quantify the risk of dangerous goods transportation,key indicators were extracted from five aspects,including personnel,cargo,facilities and equipment,safety management and transportation environment,and a risk assessment index system for the transportation of hazardous chemicals was established.By combining Bayesian network evaluation method and fuzzy comprehensive assessment method,and comprehensively considering the probability of occurrence of hazardous chemical transport risk and the degree of risk loss of hazardous chemical transportation,a risk assessment model for hazardous chemical transportation was established.Taking hazardous chemical enterprise A as an example to evaluate,and putting forward corresponding prevention and regulatory suggestions according to the assessment results,relevant research is conducive to a more comprehensive quantitative assessment of the transportation risk of hazardous chemical enterprises,so as to improve emergency management capabilities.