气候变化下中国蒟蒻薯科箭根薯的地理分布格局预测

Prediction of Geographical Distribution Pattern of Tacca chantrieri in China under Future Climate Change Scenarios

目的:探究我国珍稀濒危物种箭根薯(Taccachantrieri Andre)潜在的适宜分布区和气候变化对箭根薯地理分布格局的影响。方法:基于箭根薯有效分布数据和环境因子变量,运用最大熵模型(MaxEnt)和ArcGIS软件预测分析箭根薯在中国范围内不同时期的潜在地理分布。结果:预测结果准确性较高,受试者工作曲线面积(AUC值)达0.989,影响箭根薯地理分布最主要的气候因子是最暖季度降水量(贡献率为63.6%);在当前气候条件下,箭根薯的中、高适生区主要分布在中国南部、越南和老挝北部。结论:随气候变化,箭根薯适生区逐渐向北、向西迁移,且在未来其高适生区面积均出现较大程度的收缩,对处于濒危地位的箭根薯产生较大威胁。

Objective:To explore the potential suitable distribution area and the impact of climate change on the geographical distribution pattern of Tacca chantrieri Andre,which is a rare and endangered spe‐cies in China.Methods:Based on the effective distribution records and environmental factor variables of T.chantrieri in China,the potential geographical distribution of T.chantrieri in different periods was pre‐dicted by the maximum entropy model(MaxEnt)and ArcGIS software.Results:The prediction accuracy of the Maxent was extremely high,and the work curve area(AUC value)of the subject was 0.989.Precip‐itation of warmest quarter was the most important environmental factor variable affecting the distribution of T.chantrieri(contributing 63.6%).Under the current climate scenario,the moderately and highly suit‐able areas of T.chantrieri were mainly distributed in south of China,Vietnam and northern Laos.Conclu‐sion:Under future climate scenarios,the suitable area of T.chantrieri tends to migrate to north and west‐ward in China.The total and highly suitable areas may decrease obviously in the future,which will gener‐ate a great threat to T.chantrieri.