京津冀工业绿色发展的时空分异及影响因素研究

Spatio-temporal Difference and Influencing Factors of Industrial GreenDevelopment in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region

基于资源、环境与经济协调发展构建工业绿色发展评价指标体系,综合运用AHP、改进熵权法和耦合协调度模型对2012—2018年京津冀13市工业绿色发展的时空分异进行分析;在此基础上,综合运用拓展的STIRPA模型、超越对数生产函数、空间计量回归、通径分析等方法揭示人口、财富、技术、结构对京津冀工业绿色发展的影响。结果发现:①京津冀工业绿色发展上升趋势明显,但始终处于“较差”级别,级别较高市域大多位于京津附近的“心房”区域,级别较低市域大多位于“心底”区域。②人口存在“U”形影响且会抑制技术的正向促进作用、减缓结构的消极影响,技术的直接促进作用明显,但会强化政府干预下结构的消极影响,结构在一定程度上抑制了财富的消极影响。③人口对北京、石家庄、邯郸、保定、沧州的工业绿色发展影响较显著,技术对邢台、张家口、承德、廊坊、衡水、天津的影响较显著,结构对唐山、秦皇岛、天津等的影响较显著,财富对北京的影响较显著。

In this paper,the evaluation index system of industrial green development was constructed based on the green development connotation of resource,environment and economy.The weight was calculated by using AHP and the improved entropy weight method with the introduction of time variables,and the grading standard was set.The coupling coordination degree model was used to measure the relative and absolute levels of industrial green development in 13 cities of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region from 2012 to 2018.On this basis,considering the spatial correlation and based on the extended STIRPA model,the spatial panel translog production function of industrial green development and population,assets,technology and industrial structure in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region was constructed,and the green output elasticity of each factor was estimated.In the end,the path analysis method was used to further reveal the interaction among various factors and their direct and indirect influences on green output elasticity.It is found as follows.① Although the overall industrial green development of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region has an obvious upward trend,it is always at a "poor" level.Beijing′s industrial green development is at "good" level,Tianjin,Baoding,Shijiazhuang,Qinhuangdao at "medium" level,Cangzhou,Langfang,Hengshui,Handan,Xingtai,Tangshan,Zhangjiakou and Chengde at "poor" level.② Population growth has a U-shaped impact on industrial green development,and inhibits the positive role in promoting technology innovation and reduces the negative impact on industrial structure.The direct promotion of technology innovation is obvious,but it will strengthen the negative impact on industrial structure under government intervention.Industrial structure inhibits the negative impact of assets to a certain extent.③ Population growth has a significant impact on the industrial green development of Beijing,Shijiazhuang,Handan,Baoding and Cangzhou.Technology has a significant impact on the industrial green development of Xingtai,Zhangjiakou,Chengde,Langfang,Hengshui,Tianjin and so on.The industrial structure supererogation has a significant impact on the industrial green development of Tangshan,Qinhuangdao and Tianjin.Assets has a significant impact on the industrial green development of Beijing.