国家产业转型升级示范区建设促进地方发展的影响机制及异质性效应

Influence Mechanism and Heterogeneity Effect of the Construction of National Industrial Transformation and Upgrading Demonstration Zones on Promoting Local Development

基于中国特色的中央与地方关系视角,为分析国家产业转型升级示范区建设试点的确立实施过程对地方两阶段发展的影响机制。运用2007—2019年中国270余个地级市面板数据进行匹配筛选,通过合成控制法实证评估6个典型示范区建设试点城市在经济增长、产业结构升级和科技创新3个层面的政策效应。研究发现,政策实施效应对于不同试点城市具有较强异质性,淄博市、长治市、吉林市属于转型阵痛组,石嘴山市、娄底市属于创新型单一红利组,自贡市属于创新型双重红利组。实证结论经过时间、地区安慰剂以及双重差分法的多重检验后依然成立。

Based on the perspective of central-local relations with Chinese characteristics,in order to analyze the influence mechanism of the establishment and implementation of the pilot construction of national industrial transformation and upgrading demonstration zones on local two-stage development,this paper uses the panel data of more than 270 prefecture-level cities in China from 2007 to 2019 for matching and screening,through the synthetic control method,the policy effects of six typical demonstration area construction pilot cities are empirically evaluated in terms of economic growth,industrial structure upgrading and technological innovation.The results show that:the effect of policy implementation has strong heterogeneity for different pilot cities.Zibo,Changzhi,and Jilin belong to the group of transitional pains;Shizuishan and Loudi belong to the group of innovative single dividend;Zigong belongs to the group of innovative double dividend.The empirical conclusions are still valid after multiple tests of time and regional placebo and difference-in-differences method.