增值税税率下调促进制造业企业去杠杆吗?——基于双重差分和中介效应模型的实证检验

Does VAT Rate Cut Deleverage ManufacturingEnterprises?:Empirical Test Based on Differential Difference and Mediating Effect Model

利用双重差分模型和中介效应模型,基于深沪市100家制造业上市企业在2015-2020年的财务数据,探究2017年增值税税率下调政策对制造业企业去杠杆的影响并进行机制分析。通过双重差分模型研究发现,增值税税率下调政策显著降低了企业的杠杆率,积极促进企业去杠杆;同时增值税税率下调政策分别与资产负债率和长期负债率的交互结果显示,交互作用使得企业去杠杆的效应更加明显。通过中介模型的检验,增值税税率下调可以通过固定资产投资来降低长期负债率进而起到助力企业去杠杆的作用。

Based on the financial data of 100 listed manufacturing enterprises in Shenzhen and Shanghai stock exchanges from 2015 to 2020,the impact of VAT rate reduction policy in 2017 on deleveraging of manu-facturing enterprises was explored and the mechanism was analyzed by using differential difference model and intermediary effect model.Firstly,through the differential difference model,it is found that the VAT rate re-duction policy significantly reduces the leverage ratio of enterprises and actively promotes the deleveraging of enterprises;at the same time,the results of the interaction between the VAT rate reduction policy and asset-liability ratio and long-term debt ratio show that the interaction makes the deleveraging effect of enterprises more obvious.Secondly,through the mechanism analysis of the intermediary model,the reduction of VAT rate can reduce the long-term debt ratio through fixed asset investment and thus help enterprises to deleverage.