“综合威慑”战略视阈下拜登政府台海安全政策及其影响

Biden Administration's Security Policy toward the Taiwan Strait and its Impacts from the Perspective of Integrated Deterrence Strategy

拜登上台以来,美国政府在国家安全方面推出“综合威慑”战略,强化对华“竞争力”。在这一战略下,美国不仅加大军事投入,在印太地区积极构建双边和多边同盟,而且将台湾地区纳入战略范畴,加强在台海地区的“安全战略”部署,从而使得台海地区安全结构出现了重要变化:一是台海安全的“结构性矛盾”呈“扩大化”趋势,二是台海地区的军事发展向“竞争性”防御方向演进;三是由“战略博弈”引发“台海危机”的几率不断攀升。虽然当前拜登政府在深化对华竞争战略的同时也寻求规避中美冲突的风险,但对华“综合威慑”联盟体系的构建正在使台海地区的“安全风险”不断升级,威胁着中国乃至亚太地区的安全与稳定。

After Biden took office,the government has launched a new strategy of Integrated Deterrence to strengthen its competitiveness against China.Under this strategy,the United States has not only increased military investment,actively built bilateral and multilateral alliances in the Indo-Pacific region,but also brought Taiwan into its overarching and strengthened the deployment of the“security strategy”in the Taiwan Strait.As a result,important changes have taken place in the security structure of the Taiwan Strait.First,the structural contradiction of Taiwan Strait security shows a trend of enlargement.Second,the military development of the Taiwan Strait evolves toward the direction of competitive defense.Third,the probability of Taiwan Strait crisis caused by strategic game is prominent.Although the Biden administration is currently seeking avoiding the risk of conflict while deepening its competitive strategy against China,the construction of Integrated Deterrence toward China is escalating the security risks in the Taiwan Strait and threatening the stability of China and even the Asia-Pacific Region beyond.