台湾地区“第三势力”的发展与前景——从2022年“九合一”选举到2024年“大选”布局

The Development and Prospects of the“Third Force”in the Taiwan Region——From the“Nine-in-One”Election in 2022 to the“General Election”in 2024

台湾地区30余年的所谓“民主化”实践,形成了两党轮替的制度环境和两党主导的政治结构,并在历次选举中多次上演。在这样的政治语境中,“第三势力”发展空间受限逐渐成为一种普遍认知乃至思维定式。近年来岛内中间选民显著成长,国、民两大党实力对比失衡,“第三势力”自主性增强,为“第三势力”发挥影响力、谋求新突破带来新机遇。2022年“九合一”选举中,以台湾地区民众党为代表的新兴“第三势力”夺得新竹市,并在台北市长选举中表现不俗,显示在一定选民结构、选举环境和选战策略的耦合下,“第三势力”具备打破岛内政治环境结构性限制的空间和实力;尤其是与传统“第三势力”的式微相比,实现地方执政且赢得14席县市议员更凸显了民众党的一枝独秀。当然,选举结果与民众党预期目标有一定差距,主要原因在于政党成立时间尚短、基层经营不足、选举经验缺乏等,并不足以掩盖其发展势头。2024年“大选”和“立委”选举,是岛内政治格局重新洗牌和检验“第三势力”实力的重要节点,以民众党为代表的“第三势力”能否争取中间选民凝聚基本盘,提高民意支持度向选票的转化率,以及根据国民两大党的选举布局和竞逐态势制定正确的选战策略,将决定其未来一段时间的角色地位和发展态势。但长远来看,民众党等“第三势力”还需加强组织能力、基层经营和人才储备,尤其要在社会分歧建构和两岸关系定位上补足短板,才更有机会发挥更重要角色甚至撬动的两党制下的政党政治格局。

The“third force”is an important indicator to observe the development and changes of the political environment in Taiwan,however,under the constraints of the long-established institutional environment and its political structure,the “third force”is always difficult to get rid of the fate of the“sudden rise and fall”.In recent years,the growth of median voters in Taiwan,the imbalance of the power between the two major parties and the increased autonomy of the“third force”,have brought new opportunities for the development of the"third force".The“nine-in-one”election results in 2022 reflect that,the emerging“third force”,represented by the pepole in Taiwan's Party,has the opportunity to loosen the structural constraints by the political environment in Taiwan,under the coupling of certain electorate structure,campaign strategy and election environment.Facing the test of the“general election”in 2024,TPP could maximize the interests of the election and stabilize the development momentum of the“third force”,by strengthening the transformation of social base into vote support,and formulating effective campaign strategies according to the election situation.However,there is still a long way to go for the“third force”,such as TPP,to make up for shortcomings of social divergences building and cross-Strait policies discussion.