区域价值链视角下RCEP对台湾地区货物贸易的影响研究

Research on the Impact of RCEP on Taiwan's Trade in Goods from the Perspective of Regional Value Chain

2022年《区域全面经济伙伴关系协定》正式生效,这是中国内地坚持更高水平对外开放的重要里程碑事件,然而,台湾地区却尚未成为RCEP成员。本文基于RCEP区域价值链视角,通过关税数据和GTAP动态一般均衡模型,从短中长期维度,考察了RCEP对台湾地区制造业贸易的“挤出”效应。研究结果表明,台湾地区与RCEP区域内各经济体间的经贸往来紧密,且深嵌于区域生产网络之中,即便在短期,台湾地区也面临被“挤出”区域内生产网络的风险,在中长期,台湾地区传统优势产业被“挤出”区域生产网络的风险更将快速增加。

The official entry into force of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership(RCEP)in 2022 is an important milestone for the Chinese mainland in terms of a higher level of opening.However,the Taiwan region has not yet become a member of RCEP.Based on the RCEP regional value chain perspective,this paper examines the“squeezed out”effect of RCEP on Taiwan's manufacturing trade in the short,medium,and long-term perspective through tarif data and the GTAP dynamic general equilibrium model.The research results show that Taiwan enjoys close economic and trade ties with the economies in the RCEP region,and is deeply embedded in the regional production network.Even in the short term,Taiwan faces the risk of being“squeezed out”of the regional production network,and in the medium to long term,the risk of Taiwan's traditional advantageous industries being“squeezed out”of the regional production network will increase rapidly.