晚清中央地方关系对市场分割的影响

The Impact of the Late Qing Dynasty Central-Local Relations on Market Segmentation

构建统一市场是国家能力建设的重要一环,而政治权力分割对市场分割又有着关键性作用。以太平天国运动前后的大米市场作为考察对象,我们研究了晚清地方督抚的政治势力扩张带来的市场分割。依托米价数据与清末官员数据,构建了涵盖195个府的米价相对离差数据库与官员政治网络数据库,并通过DID回归分析发现:在太平天国运动后,以曾国藩、李鸿章为代表的湘军与淮军势力崛起,显著扩大了湘军淮军督抚控制区与清政府控制区间的米价离差。在进一步对这种市场分割的长期影响进行分析时,我们利用IV-2SLS估计发现清代市场分割对民国的市场分割也具有显著的持续性影响。

This paper focuses on the rice market before and after the Taiping Rebellion to investigate the market segmentation resulting from the expansion of political power by regional governors in the late Qing dynasty.By utilizing rice price data and official data from the period of the late Qing dynasty,the study constructs a relative price dispersion database covering 195 prefectures and a political network database of officials.Through DID regression analysis,the research finds that after the Taiping Rebellion,the rise of regional military forces represented by figures like Zeng Guofan and Li Hongzhang,notably expanded the price dispersion of rice between areas under the control of the Xiang and Huai armies and those under the control of the Qing government.Further analysis of the long-term effects of this market segmentation reveals that market segmentation in the Qing Dynasty had a significant and lasting impact on market segmentation in the Republic of China era,as estimated using IV-2SLS estimation methods.