疫情冲击下考虑产业政策对汽车制造商生产的影响研究

The Research on the Influence of Industrial Policies on Production-decision of Automakers to the COVID-19 Shocking

突发的新冠疫情给汽车产业带来了巨大的冲击,导致产业链出现上游供给端成本溢价,下游消费端市场规模缩水的问题。鉴于这一现实,我国政府在原有双积分政策基础上,颁发了一系列补贴刺激政策,以保证汽车产业的平稳有序发展。在此背景下,本文分析了疫情冲击下,政府并行实施双积分与补贴政策对燃油汽车和新能源汽车两类汽车制造商生产决策的影响。研究结果表明,双积分政策本身不会对两类汽车的收益产生根本性的影响,但与补贴政策一起具有协同放大作用;此外,针对疫情出台的新能源汽车补贴退坡暂缓等刺激政策,会使新能源汽车暂时获得优于燃油汽车的市场优势,但该优势随疫情减轻而降低,具有一定的时效性。

The sudden COVID-19 has brought a huge impact to the auto industry,which has led to a cost premium of supply chain side on the upstream and a shrinking market of demand side on the downstream.So,the auto industry is facing a big challenge.Sensing this,the government,based on the original dual-credit policy,proposed some stimulus policies such as the suspension of the China VI emission standard,the continued subsidy for the purchase of new energy vehicles(NEVs),and so on.In this context,the impact of the parallel implementation of dual-credit policy and subsidy policies on the production decision-making of two types of automakers is analyzed.First,a benchmark model A(before COVID-19)and a model B(after COVID)are formulated.To facilitate the research,the entire market has been taken as a whole,and an extended Hotelling model has been adopted.Then,static and dynamic analysis method is put forward to investigate two things:(i)the impact of the COVID-19 on the prices,demand,revenue,and market share of NEVs and fuel vehicles(FVs)automakers,(ii)the influence of policies and cost premium for the production and pricing strategies are derived.The results show that,the subsidy of government is more favorable to the development of NEVs than FVs to the COVID-19 shocking.Moreover,the dual-credit policy itself have a limited fundamental impact on the revenue of the two types of automakers,but it has a synergistic effect together with the subsidy policy.Besides,with the background of the COVID-19 shocking,NEVs have temporarily obtained a market advantage over fuel-powered vehicles,and this advantage decreases with the reduction of the COVID-19 and has a certain timeliness.This study provides important implications that can be utilized as strategic guidance for government and NEV/FV automakers,and it also meaningful for carbon peak and carbon neutral goal.