鹰潭市短时强降水天气分型与回波特征分析

Analysis of weather classification and echo characteristics of short-term heavy precipitation in Yingtan

为了做好鹰潭市短时强降水天气的监测预警和预报服务工作,文章使用MICAPS天气资料、雷达回波、地面自动气象站等资料,对2015—2019年鹰潭市短时强降水过程进行分析,结果表明:1)鹰潭市≥30 mm/h强降水中心位于鹰潭中部河谷平原和南部山区,其中以中部平原、河谷地带出现强降水的频次最多,高山区次之,丘陵地带强降水出现频次最少;≥30 mm/h强降水主要出现在5—7月的主汛期,占比为81.7%,并以6月份为最多,占比为40.2%。2)鹰潭市短时强降水天气系统配置分为槽前型、槽底型、副高型、飑线型、台风型和高架对流型,其中槽前型是导致鹰潭市发生短时强降水最多的天气类型,占总个例的58.75%。3)鹰潭市的短时强降水有两种雷达回波特征,一是不同走向的带状回波(包含短带回波)特征;二是不同尺度的团块状回波(包含块状回波)特征。上述研究结果为鹰潭市短时强降水的预报预警提供了分析依据。

In order to do a good job in the monitoring,early warning and forecasting service of short-term heavy precipitation weather in Yingtan,this paper uses MICAPS weather data,radar echo,ground automatic weather station and other data to analyze the short-term heavy precipitation process in Yingtan from 2015 to 2019.The results show that:1)the center of heavy precipitation greater than or equal to 30 mm/h in Yingtan is located in the central valley plain and southern mountainous area of Yingtan.Among them,the frequency of heavy precipitation in the central plain and valley area is the most,followed by the high mountain area,and the frequency of heavy precipitation in the hilly area is the least.The heavy precipitation greater than or equal to 30mm/h mainly occurs in the main flood season from May to July,accounting for 81.7%,and it is the most in June,accounting for 40.2%.2)The weather system configuration of short-term strong precipitation in Yingtan is divided into trough front type,trough bottom type,subtropical high type,squall line type,typhoon type and elevated convection type.The trough front type is the weather type with the most short-term strong precipitation in Yingtan,accounting for 58.75% of the total cases.3)There are two radar echo characteristics of the short-term strong precipitation in Yingtan.One is the band echo with different directions.The second is the characteristics of block echo at different scales.The above research results provide an analytical basis for the prediction and early warning of short-term strong precipitation in Yingtan.