缅甸省域人口分布格局及其影响因素研究

The influencing factors of provincial population distribution in Myanmar

缅甸是“一带一路”的重要战略节点,且其省域间存在较大的文化差异,给在缅投资带来较大的不确定性。因此剖析缅甸省域人口分布格局及其影响因素具有重要的理论意义和现实价值。本研究在阐述缅甸各省(邦)人口分布格局的基础上,基于缅甸各省(邦)2005—2017年人口、社会经济、自然环境等面板数据,构建影响因素指标体系;其次利用主成分分析对其指标体系进行降维;然后使用空间杜宾模型,着重考虑各要素的空间溢出效应,对缅甸人口分布格局的影响因素进行分析。结果表明:①缅甸人口空间分布格局异质性显著,呈现以仰光、曼德勒、内比都为核心的全国人口集聚区,三省区人口占全国总人口的28.5%;②社会公共服务对人口分布具有显著的正向直接效应,自然环境对人口分布具有显著的正向直接效应和负向空间溢出效应,城市发展与就业质量对人口分布具有显著的正向直接效应和正向空间溢出效应,政治冲突事件对人口分布具有显著的负向空间溢出效应,而经济发展对人口分布的影响统计不显著。

As a major participant in the construction of"China-Myanmar Economic Corridor"and the"One Belt and One Road"Initiative,Myanmar has an important strategic position,but the research on its population and socio-economic situation is relatively weak.Based on the summary of Myanmar's population distribution from the provincial scale,this paper used panel data of population,socio-economic and natural environment of Myanmar from 2005 to 2017,and spatial econometric model,explored the influencing factors of population distribution in Myanmar.The results show that:①There are significant differences in the spatial distribution of population in Myanmar.The population density in Myanmar is"high in the central part and low in the eastern part and low in the western part".Yangon,Mandalay and Naypyidaw are the national population agglomeration areas,and the population in the three provinces and regions accounts for 28.5%of the total population in the country.②social and public services have a significant positive direct effect on the population distribution,and natural environment on the population distribution has significant positive effect and negative spillover effects space directly,with the urban development and the employment quality has significant positive direct effect on the population distribution and positive spatial spillover effects,political conflict on the population distribution has significant negative spatial spillover effect,and no significant effect on the population distribution statistics of economic development.