中国水果产业布局演变及其影响效应研究——基于农村劳动力价格变化视角

Research on the changes of China's fruit planting distribution and its influence effect:Based on the perspective of price changes of rural labor

在推导中国水果产业布局演变的影响模型基础上,以1985—2019年中国22个水果主产省为研究对象,探讨农业劳动价格、非农劳动价格和工资收入占比对我国水果产业布局演变的影响效应。结果表明:农业劳动价格、非农劳动价格和工资收入占比的提高对东部水果种植产生替代效应,造成东部各省区水果种植面积减少或增幅不明显,比重下降;农业劳动价格、非农劳动价格和工资收入占比对中部水果种植的影响具有省际异质性,产生的替代效应和收入效应相互抵消,导致中部整体水果种植比重无显著变化;西北、西南地区较低的农业劳动工价和非农劳动价格使其具有劳动成本比较优势,工资收入占比提高产生收入效应,使西北、西南地区水果种植面积大幅增加,比重上升,促成我国水果种植布局“西移内扩”。因此,优化水果产业布局要解决水果适宜区农村劳动力价格过高和非适宜区农村劳动力价格过低等问题。

On deriving the impact model of the evolution of the fruit industry distribution in China and the datum of 22 major provinces planting fruit in 1985-2019,it studies the impact of agricultural labor price,non-agricultural labor prices and the proportion of wage in farmers'income on the distribution evolution of fruit industry empirically.The results show that:The increases of agricultural labor price,non-agricultural labor prices and the proportion of wages in farmers'income bring a substitution effect on fruit planting in provinces from eastern areas,which results in a decline or unchanging acreage of fruit planting,that is the acreage proportions in provinces from eastern areas decrease;There are inhibitory effect of agricultural labor price,non-agricultural labor prices and the proportion of wages in farmers'income on fruit planting by which the substitution effect and the income effect offset each other,so that the proportion of fruit planting in middle areas has no significant change;There are comparative advantage produced by lower agricultural labor price and lower non-agricultural labor prices and income effect produced by increasing wages which stimulate the acreages of fruit planting expand and the acreages proportion increase in large scale in provinces from northwest and southwest areas so that a distribution of"westward and inward expansion"of the fruit plant in China is forming.Therefore,it is necessary to solve the problems of excessively high prices of rural labor in areas suitable for fruit plant and low prices of rural labor in unsuitable areas.