1980—2020年黑龙江省土地利用碳排放时空分异研究

Study on Spatial and Temporal Variation of Carbon Emission of Land Use in Heilongjiang Province from 1980 to 2020

土地利用碳排放时空分异格局研究对于指导区域实现碳中和目标具有重要意义。本文以1980—2020年黑龙江省遥感影像和能源消耗数据为基础,采用土地利用碳排放计算和碳排放风险指数测算模型,结合土地利用转移矩阵、ArcGIS空间分析等方法,对黑龙江省土地利用现状、碳排放时空格局以及碳排放风险进行分析。结果表明:黑龙江省主要用地类型为耕地和建设用地且面积逐年增加,建设用地是最主要的碳源,林地、草地和水域面积逐年下降,林地是最主要的碳汇。1980—2020年黑龙江省土地利用碳排放量呈现不同程度的上升,在碳源方面,总碳源量呈现出波动上升的变化趋势;在碳汇方面,总碳汇量逐年降低。2000—2020年各市域碳排放总量呈现不同程度的增加,其中2000—2010年增速较快,2010—2020年增速较缓,2000—2020年各市域碳排放空间差异性逐渐显著,风险等级逐年升高。依据相关分析结果,本文期望为黑龙江省低碳土地利用模式和碳减排政策提供参考,为中国“双碳”目标的实现提供决策支持。

The study of the spatial and temporal differentiation pattern of land use carbon emission is of great significance for guiding the regional realization of carbon neutral goals.Based on the remote sensing images and energy consumption data of Heilongjiang Province from 1980 to 2020,this paper analyzed the current situation of land use,the temporal and spatial pattern of carbon emissions and the risk of carbon emissions in Heilongjiang Province by using the calculation model of land use carbon emissions and the calculation model of carbon emissions risk index,combined with the land use transfer matrix,ArcGIS spatial analysis and other methods.The results showed that the main land types in Heilongjiang Province were cultivated land and construction land,and the area increased year by year.Construction land was the main carbon source.Forest land,grassland and water area decreased year by year,and forest land was the most important carbon sink.From 1980 to 2020,the carbon emissions of land use in Heilongjiang Province increased in varying degrees.In terms of carbon sources,the total carbon sources showed a fluctuating upward trend;in terms of carbon sinks,the total carbon sinks decreased year by year.From 2000 to 2020,the total carbon emissions of each city increased to varying degrees,of which the growth rate was fast from 2000 to 2010,and slower from 2010 to 2020.From 2000 to 2020,the spatial difference of carbon emissions of each city was gradually significant,and the risk level increased year by year.Based on the relevant analysis results,this paper aims to provide reference for the low-carbon land use model and carbon emission reduction policy of Heilongjiang Province,and provide decision support for the realization of China’s“dual carbon”goal.