数字经济促进碳减排的机制与效应——基于绿色技术进步视角的经验考察

The Mechanism and Effect of Digital Economy to Promote CO 2 Emission Reduction:An Empirical Investigation Based on the Green Technological Progress

以数字经济运行的资源配置效应为切入点,从绿色技术进步视角阐释数字经济促进碳减排的理论机制,并结合中国省际与城市面板数据进行多维度实证检验。结果表明,数字经济发展对碳排放具有显著促降作用,该结论经过工具变量估计与稳健性检验后依然成立;数字经济存在跨界减排效应,不仅对空间关联地区的碳排放具有负向空间溢出效应,而且通过循环反馈机制降低本地区碳排放水平。机制检验表明,绿色技术创新能力和绿色全要素生产率表征的绿色技术进步表现出技术红利效应,是数字经济推动碳减排的重要途径;在要素市场发育调节下,优化禀赋结构和提高技术成果市场化水平能够显著强化数字经济的碳减排效应。异质性分析发现,数字经济对北方地区的碳减排作用显著强于南方地区,且其减排效应仅在城市群内部显著;仅加强数字基础设施建设并不能有效推动碳减排,数字产业化发展和生产生活数字化转型是促进碳排放持久下降的动力源泉。研究结论可为加速释放数字经济时代的碳减排潜力提供经验证据和政策启示。

To mitigate climate warming,CO 2 emission reduction has become an international consensus and an important issue.Along with the iterative update of new-generation information technology,the development of the digital economy brings new opportunities for CO 2 emission reduction by reorganizing factor allocation,reshaping economic structure,and reconstructing industrial ecology.Previous literature has revealed the macro mechanism of the digital economy and its economic effects,gradually focusing on its environmental effects,but has not yet effectively clarified the influence path and direction of the digital economy on CO 2 emission reduction.Therefore,the interpretation of CO 2 emission reduction mechanism and the identification of CO 2 emission reduction effect on the digital economy need to be further extended.In this regard,this article introduces the digital economy into the analysis framework of CO 2 emission impact factors and conducts a multi-dimensional empirical analysis by using Chinese provincial panel data from 2013-2021,combined with the fixed effects model,panel quantile regression model,spatial econometric model,and simultaneous equation model.The findings show that(1)the development of digital economy has a significant pro-reduction effect on CO 2 emissions,and this conclusion still holds after instrumental variable estimation and robustness testing;(2)there exists a trans-boundary CO 2 emission reduction effect,implying that the digital economy not only shows a negative spatial spillover effect on CO 2 emissions in spatially connected regions,but also reduces the CO 2 emission level in the region through a circular feedback mechanism;(3)the mechanism assessment indicates that the green technological progress characterized by green technological innovation capability and green total factor productivity shows a"technology dividend"effect,which is an important way for the digital economy to promote CO 2 emission reduction;and under the regulation of factor market development,the optimization of the endowment structure and the improvement of the marketization of technological achievements significantly strengthen the CO 2 emission reduction effect of the digital economy;(4)the heterogeneity analysis indicates that the digital economy has a significantly stronger effect on CO 2 emission reduction in northern regions than in southern regions,and its reduction effect is only significant within urban clusters;moreover,simply strengthening digital infrastructure does not effectively promote CO 2 emission reduction,the development of digital industrialization and digital transformation of production and life are the driving force to promote the long-term decline of CO 2 emissions.According to the above conclusions,the following policy implications are presented.First,it is necessary to promote the high-quality development of the digital economy while expanding the scale of digital infrastructure so as to strengthen the resource allocation function of the digital economy.Second,a regional collaboration mechanism should be established to bridge the digital divide and form a regional pattern of coordinated development of the digital economy,and while it is essential to enhance communication and coordination of policy design and implementation to share low-carbon development experiences and form a regional synergy of"digital emission reduction".Last,the green bias of technological progress should be strengthened by deepening the integration and application of digital technologies such as the Internet of Things,big data,artificial intelligence,and blockchain in the fields of energy conservation,environmental protection,and clean energy.Besides,to stimulate market participants to carry out green technology research,the government may provide financial support through special funds or policy subsidies,and guide the green consumption behavior of residents through differential consumption tax policies.Different from previous literature,this article takes the resource allocation effect of digital economy operation as the entry point,innovatively clarifies the endogenous mechanism of digital economy promoting CO 2 emission reduction from the perspective of green technological progress,thus providing a new perspective to achieve the carbon peaking and carbon neutrality goals.In addition,it adopts the instrumental variable approach to identify the causal relationship between the development of digital economy and CO 2 emission reduction,and combines the transmission mechanism test,moderating effect test,and heterogeneity analysis to provide a more reliable and robust empirical basis for giving full play to the CO 2 emission reduction effect of digital economy.