闲暇膨胀与零工经济:自动化何以驱动就业净增

On Leisure Expansion and Gig Economy:How Automation Drives Net Employment Growth

自动化既会带来失业威胁也能创造出新岗位,但是关于上述两种作用的净效应问题,即自动化是否能带来就业净增,在研究界仍然存在广泛争议。通过建立技术与闲暇同时内生的任务型生产函数模型,本研究证明了闲暇膨胀和工作弹性增强是自动化技术得以产生就业净增的一条可行路径。研究基于中国地区经济数据的计量检验,深化了自动化就业效应的内部分析,即对自动化创造就业的内在过程做了结构性拓展,识别出自动化创造净增就业的一条可行路径:自动化发展→劳动生产率提高→闲暇膨胀→技术型零工经济就业→就业净增。研究建议:应积极推进新业态就业的综合配套保障,提高技术型群体零工经济就业的能力;大力加强相关制度体制保障,支持基于新技术的“副业创新”;多方鼓励产业交叉,加大自动化就业与消费升级相结合的力度和深度。

Automation can create new jobs whilst it also threatens employment.However,there is still a broad debate in academia about the net effect of the two types of impacts,i.e.,whether automation can lead to net employment growth.By establishing a task-based production function model with technology and leisure simultaneously endogenous,this study examines how leisure expansion and work flexibility enhancement provide a feasible path for automation technology to generate net employment growth.Based on econometric tests of economic data from China,this study deepens the internal analysis of the employment effects of automation by identifying a feasible path for automation to create net employment growth,i.e.automation development→labor productivity improvement→leisure expansion→technology-based gig economy employment→net employment growth.The study suggests that comprehensive support be provided to promote new employment forms and enhance the employability of the technology-based working population;relevant institutional support be strengthened to encourage"secondary innovation"based on new technologies;and industrial cross-fertilization be encouraged to strengthen the combination of automation employment with consumption upgrading.