制度型开放与消费者福利增进——来自跨境电商综试区的证据

Institutional Opening Up and Consumer Welfare Enhancement:Based on the Evidence of Cross-border E-commerce Comprehensive Pilot Zones

设立跨境电商综试区是中国推动制度型开放的重要举措。本文构建涵盖中国30个省市和34个国家的大型一般均衡模型,利用拓展的Head-Ries指数测算非对称贸易成本,运用结构估计方法首次量化评估了跨境电商综试区设立的消费者福利增进效应。研究发现:综试区设立可以同时提高国内消费者和国外消费者的福利水平;综试区设立的福利增进效应存在明显的地区异质性,东部地区单个综试区建设带来的边际福利增长明显高于中西部地区;由于低收入人群的农产品边际消费倾向更高,综试区设立对高收入人群的福利提升效应更大。总体上地区贸易壁垒越大,综试区建设的福利效应越高。理论机制上,综试区设立通过贸易份额和投入产出关联两个渠道提高消费者福利。本文研究对优化跨境电商综试区建设布局、更好地推动制度型开放具有重要启示意义。

The establishment of cross-border e-commerce comprehensive pilot zones(CECPZs)is an important measure for China to promote institutional opening up.In recent years,China's cross-border e-commerce has continued to experience rapid development,which is inseparable from the Chinese government's high attention and strong support of relevant policies.In March 2015,the State Council approved the establishment of Hangzhou CECPZ and then continued to expand the scope of the pilot in batches.As of August 2023,a total of 165 CECPZs have been established across the country,covering 30 provincial-level regions.However,whether and how the development of cross-border e-commerce affects the welfare of individual consumers is an important issue that has not received enough attention from existing research.This paper structurally estimates the welfare effects and channels of the construction of CECPZs.Compared with the existing research,the marginal contributions of this paper are as follows.First,this paper quantitatively evaluates the welfare effects of CECPZs for the first time.This paper constructs a large-scale general equilibrium model including 30 provincial-level regions and 34 countries.It then uses the structural estimation method and comprehensively utilizes multi-source data such as China's provincial input-output table,the Asian Development Bank multi-regional input-output table,and the Chinese customs database.At the same time,we refer to the extended Head-Ries index of Tombe(2015)to calculate the asymmetric trade costs.This paper uses CECPZs to carry out multi-period DID regression,obtains the marginal effect of a single CECPZ on the reduction of trade costs,and then realizes the welfare impact analysis of trade cost parameter changes based on real data.Second,this paper evaluates the impact of the establishment of CECPZs on the welfare of domestic and foreign consumers,deeply analyzes the regional heterogeneity and income heterogeneity of the impact,and analyzes the trade share mechanism and input-output mechanism.Third,this paper constructs an extended large-scale general equilibrium model considering both consumer heterogeneity and regional heterogeneity.Then it uses the structural estimation method to quantitatively evaluate the welfare effects of the establishment of CECPZs.Fourth,this paper puts forward novel policy suggestions from the aspects of optimizing the spatial layout of CECPZs and improving the income level of low-income groups,which can provide decision-making reference for optimizing the layout of CECPZs and better promoting institutional opening up.This study finds that the establishment of CECPZs can improve the welfare of domestic consumers and foreign consumers at the same time;the welfare enhancement effect of the establishment of CECPZs has obvious regional heterogeneity,and the marginal welfare brought about by the construction of a new CECPZ in the eastern region is significantly higher than that in the central and western regions;since the marginal propensity to consume agricultural products of low-income groups is higher,the establishment of CECPZs has a greater effect on the welfare of high-income groups.In general,the greater the regional trade barriers,the higher the welfare effect of the construction of CECPZs;in terms of theoretical mechanism,the establishment of CECPZs improves consumer welfare through two channels:expansion of the import share of consumer goods and input-output linkages.The conclusions of this paper have obvious policy implications.First,China should actively deepen cross-border ecommerce and digital trade cooperation with other countries,and export excellent experience and practices in the field of cross-border e-commerce.Second,China should formulate differentiated development strategies by region and optimize the spatial layout of comprehensive pilot zones.On the one hand,the government should help form a development pattern of linkage between comprehensive pilot zones across land and sea,as well as east and west;on the other hand,given varying levels of regional development,the construction of comprehensive pilot zones should prioritize different areas of focus.Third,it is necessary to pay attention to low-and middle-income groups to ensure the welfare effects brought by crossborder e-commerce benefit all income groups.Fourth,it is imperative to optimize cross-border e-commerce policies,deepen support measures,advance the construction,and use the construction of comprehensive pilot zones to facilitate trade barrier reduction.Fifth,it is necessary to diversify supply chain channels to prevent the risk of rapid cost growth.Sixth,it is necessary to promote the professional development of local industries.