不确定性视角下统筹经济发展与金融安全的动态路径

Research on the Dynamic Path of Coordinating Economic Development and Financial Security from the Perspective of Uncertainty

在不确定性冲击下统筹经济发展和金融安全是助力全面建设社会主义现代化强国的重要保障。本文运用TVP-FAVAR-DMA模型和高维因子模型测度了我国金融形势指数以及经济和金融不确定性指数,并构建QVAR模型实证分析了经济金融不确定性对经济发展和金融周期的影响机制以及财政货币政策的调控效应。研究发现,我国经济和金融不确定性呈现出既交叉共振又局部独立运行的复杂勾稽关系,经济和金融不确定性对实体经济和金融市场造成了负向冲击,冲击程度随着不确定性等级的上升而提高,极端情况下会带来系统性风险。货币和财政政策对产出和金融市场的调控有效性随着经济金融不确定性级别的提升而渐次递减,在极端情况下短期几乎失效。财政政策在应对经济不确定性对实体经济的负向冲击方面更加有效,货币政策在应对金融不确定性对金融市场的负向冲击方面更加有效。因此,要构建前瞻性的不确定性预警系统,做到动态监测、准确识别、精准调控。

Balancing economic development and financial security under the impact of uncertainties is an important guarantee for building a great modern socialist country in an all-round way.This paper uses a TVP-FAVAR-DMA model and a high-dimensional factor model to measure China's financial situation index as well as economic and financial uncertainty index.By constructing a QVAR model,this paper empirically-analyzes the influence mechanism of economic and financial uncertainty on economic development and financial cycle,as well as the regulation effect of fiscal and monetary policies.The study has found that China's economic and financial uncertainty presents a complex relationship of cross-resonance and partially independent operation.Moreover,the economic and financial uncertainty has a negative impact on the real economy and financial market.The impact degree increases with the increase of uncertainty level,which in extreme cases will bring systemic risk.As the level of economic and financial uncertainty increases,the effectiveness of monetary and fiscal policies in regulating output and financial markets gradually decreases.However,in extreme cases,they are almost ineffective in the short term.Fiscal policy is more effective in dealing with the negative impact of economic uncertainty on the real economy,and monetary policy is more effective in dealing with the negative impact of financial uncertainty on the financial market.Therefore,it is necessary to build a forward-looking uncertainty early warning system to achieve dynamic monitoring,accurate identification and accurate regulation.