跨境电商能否增强企业出口稳定性

Can Cross-border E-commerce Enhance the Export Stability of Enterprises?

增强出口企业风险抵御能力、保持出口持续稳定发展是推进对外贸易高质量发展的重中之重。本文基于2007—2016年的国泰安上市公司数据库与海关企业数据库的匹配数据,运用Cloglog离散时间生存分析模型研究了跨境电商对企业出口稳定性的影响及作用机制。研究表明,跨境电商增强了企业出口的稳定性。区分生产率高低与企业规模大小发现,跨境电商对低生产率、小规模企业的出口稳定性促进作用更强,区分出口产品类别与贸易方式发现,跨境电商对多产品出口企业与一般贸易企业的出口稳定性促进作用更强。机制分析表明,跨境电商主要通过贸易成本削减、产品质量升级与出口多元化程度提升三个渠道发挥稳出口的作用。

Strengthening the risk resistance ability of export enterprises and maintaining the sustained and stable development of ex-ports are the top priorities for promoting high-quality development of foreign trade.This article is based on the matching data be-tween the CSMAR database and the customs database from 2007 to 2016,using the Cloglog discrete time survival analysis model to study the impact and mechanism of cross-border e-commerce on the export stability of enterprises.The results show that cross-bor-der e-commerce has enhanced the stability of enterprises'exports.By distinguishing between high and low productivity and the size of enterprises,it was found that cross-border e-commerce has a stronger promoting effect on the export stability of low productivity and small-scale enterprises.By distinguishing between export product categories and trade methods,it was found that cross-border e-commerce has a stronger promoting effect on the export stability of multi product export enterprises and general trade enterprises.Mechanism analysis shows that cross-border e-commerce mainly plays a stabilizing role in exports through three channels:reducing trade costs,upgrading product quality,and increasing export diversification.