2013-2022年郑州市二七区丙型肝炎流行特征及趋势预测

Prevalence Characteristics and Trend Forecast of Hepatitis C in Erqi District of Zhengzhou from 2013 to 2022

目的了解郑州市二七区丙型肝炎(简称丙肝)流行特征,预测发病趋势,为制定丙肝防治措施提供科学依据。方法通过中国疾病预防控制信息系统收集2013—2022年二七区丙肝病例信息,应用描述性流行病学方法分析流行特征,通过灰色GM(1,1)模型预测发病趋势。结果2013—2022年二七区共报告丙肝病例4820例,年均发病率为58.41/10万,发病率呈逐年下降趋势(χ^(2)_(趋势)=1101.617,P<0.001)。二七区大学路街道病例最多(730例,占15.15%),发病率最高(1165.28/10万)。每年各月均有发病,无明显季节特征(P>0.05)。男女比例为0.97∶1,发病率差异无统计学意义(P>0.05)。报告病例年龄(52.78±15.53)岁,40~64岁年龄组的病例占60.23%(2903例),≥65岁年龄组占21.89%(1055例)且构成比逐年增加(χ^(2)_(趋势)=28.012,P<0.001)。职业以家务及待业、离退人员和农民为主,占71.58%(3450例)。灰色GM(1,1)模型预测丙肝发病率拟合评定等级为“好”,预测2020—2024年丙肝发病率分别为44.26/10万、39.46/10万、35.18/10万、31.36/10万、27.96/10万。结论二七区丙肝发病率呈下降趋势,但仍处于高流行态势,应加强重点人群和重点地区的宣传力度,增强防病意识,积极探索防控新模式。

Objective To understand the epidemiological characteristics of hepatitis C(Hepatitis C)in Erqi District of Zhengzhou City,predict the trend of incidence,and provide a scientific basis for the development of preventive and curative measures against Hepatitis C.Methods Through the China Disease Control and Prevention Information System,information on hepatitis C cases in Erqi District was collected from 2013 to 2022,and descriptive epidemiological methods were applied to analyze the epidemiological characteristics and predict the incidence trend through the gray GM(1,1)model.Results A total of 4,820 cases of hepatitis C were reported in Erqi District from 2013 to 2022,with an average annual incidence rate of 58.41/100,000,and the incidence rate showed a decreasing trend year by year(2trend=1101.617,P<0.001).The street of Daxue Road in Erqi District had the most cases(730 cases,15.15%)and the highest incidence rate(1,165.28/100,000).There were cases in all months of the year,with no obvious seasonal characteristics(P>0.05).The male-to-female ratio was 0.97∶1,and the difference in incidence rates was not statistically significant(P>0.05).The age of reported cases was(52.78±15.53)years,with 60.23%(2,903 cases)of cases in the age group of 40-64 years and 21.89%(1,055 cases)in the age group of≥65 years and the constitutive ratio was increasing year by year(2trend=28.012,P<0.001).Occupation was dominated by housework,non-engaged,retired and farmers,accounting for 71.58%(3,450 cases).The gray GM(1,1)model predicted the incidence rate of hepatitis C with a fit rating of“good”,and the predicted incidence rates of hepatitis C from 2020 to 2024 were 44.26/100,000,39.46/100,000,35.18/100,000,31.36/100,000,27.96/per 100,000 people.Conclusion The incidence of hepatitis C in Erqi District is on a downward trend,but it is still in a high prevalence situation,and the publicity of key populations and key areas should be strengthened to enhance the awareness of disease prevention and to actively explore new modes of prevention and control.