2012-2021年山东省东营市水痘流行特征分析及发病趋势预测

Epidemiological characteristics and trend prediction of varicella in Dongying City of Shandong Province from 2012 to 2021

目的了解2012—2021年山东省东营市水痘的流行特征并预测发病趋势,为制订东营市水痘防控策略提供依据。方法利用中国疾病预防控制信息系统中传染病监测系统收集2012—2021年山东省东营市水痘病例资料进行描述性分析,使用ARIMA模型预测2022年发病情况。结果2012—2021年山东省东营市共报告10104例水痘病例,平均发病率为47.54/10万;2019年报告发病数最多,发病率为90.19/10万;东营市东营区报告病例最多,占报告总数的53.20%,平均发病率为67.46/10万;一年中有两次发病高峰,分别为4—6月(25.12%)和11月—次年1月(38.47%),呈双峰分布;男性发病率(26.43/10万)高于女性(21.11/10万);年龄分布上,>10~15岁、>15~20岁两个组报告发病4266例,占发病总例数的42.22%;职业分布上,以在校学生、幼托儿童和散居儿童为主,水痘病例6492例,占发病总数的62.39%;东营市2012—2021年10年间发病总体呈上升趋势,2020年之后发病率较2019年有所下降。使用ARIMA模型预测;2022年水痘病例发病时间分布与往年一致,主要集中在4—6月份及11—次年1月份;2022年预测值较实际值稍高。结论东营市近年水痘发病呈上升趋势,以儿童及青少年为主,应加强中小学生等重点人群宣传教育和学校等重点场所管理。

Objective To know the epidemiological characteristics and the incidence trend of varicella in Dongying City of Shandong Province from 2012 to 2021,so as to provide evidence for formulating the prevention and control strategy of varicella in the city.Methods The data of varicella cases in Dongying City of Shandong Province from 2012 to 2021 were collected from the infectious disease surveillance system of China Information System for Disease Control and Prevention for descriptive analysis,and the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average(ARIMA)model was used to predict the incidence in 2022.Results A total of 10104 cases of varicella were reported in Dongying City of Shandong Province from 2012 to 2021,with an average incidence of(47.54/105).In 2019,the number of reported cases was the highest,with an incidence of(90.19/105).Most cases were reported in the Dongying District of Dongying City,accounting for 53.20%of the total cases,with an average incidence of(67.46/105).There were two peaks in a year,which were from April to June(25.12%)and from November to January of the following year(38.47%),showing bimodal distribution.The incidence rate of males(26.43/105)was higher than that of females(21.11/105).In terms of age distribution,4266 cases were reported in>10-15 year groups and>15-20 year groups,accounting for 42.22%of the total cases.In terms of occupational distribution,there were 6492 cases of varicella mainly in school students,kindergarten children,and scattered children,accounting for 62.39%of the total cases.The incidence in Dongying City showed an overall upward trend during the decade from 2012 to 2021 and decreased after 2020 compared with the incidence in 2019.The ARIMA model predicted that the onset time distribution of varicella cases in 2022 was consistent with that of a few years ago,mainly concentrated in April-June and November-January of the following year.The forecast for 2022 was slightly higher than the actual value.Conclusions The incidence of varicella in Dongying City has shown an increasing trend in recent years,mainly in children and adolescents.It is necessary to strengthen the publicity and education of key populations such as primary and middle school students and the management of key places such as schools.