中国经济增长、能源消费与二氧化碳排放互动关系研究——基于面板VAR的实证分析

Research on the Interaction between China's Economic Growth,Energy Consumption and Carbon Dioxide Emissions:Empirical Analysis Based on Panel VAR

基于中国1995—2021年30省份的面板数据,构建PVAR模型,采用Granger因果检验、脉冲反应函数等方法对中国经济增长、能源消费、二氧化碳排放之间的关系进行实证分析。研究表明:(1)全国的能源消费、经济增长与二氧化碳排放两两之间均为因果关系;(2)东部地区存在能源消耗与二氧化碳排放对经济增长的正向显著关系,中部地区存在能源消耗对经济增长、能源消耗对二氧化碳排放正向显著关系,西部地区存在能源消耗与二氧化碳排放对经济增长、经济增长对能源消费与二氧化碳排放之间的正向显著关系;(3)脉冲响应函数和预测误差方差分解分析均表明能源消费对二氧化碳排放冲击较大。为实现可持续发展,本文提出积极发展清洁能源与提高能源利用技术水平、重点培育中部地区经济发展的新动能、产业结构转型升级及出台相关制度与政策等建议。

Based on the panel data of 30 provinces in China from 1995 to 2021,the PVAR model is constructed,and the relationship among economic growth,energy consumption and carbon dioxide emissions in China is empirically analyzed by using Granger causality test and impulse response function.The research shows that:(1)there is a causal relationship between energy consumption,economic growth and carbon dioxide emissions.(2)there is a positive significant relationship between energy consumption and carbon dioxide emissions to economic growth in the eastern region,and a positive significant relationship between energy consumption to economic growth and energy consumption to carbon dioxide emissions in the central region.There is a positive significant relationship between energy consumption and carbon dioxide emissions to economic growth,economic growth to energy emissions and carbon dioxide emissions in the western region.(3)both impulse response function and variance decomposition analysis of prediction error show that energy consumption has a great impact on carbon dioxide emissions.In order to achieve sustainable development,this paper puts forward some suggestions,such as actively developing clean energy and improving the technological level of energy utilization,focusing on the cultivation of new momentum of economic development in the central region,the transformation and upgrading of industrial structure and the introduction of relevant systems and policies.