基于韦伯分布与RBI理论修正的加氢母站设备可靠性分析

Reliability Analysis of Hydrogenation Master Station Equipment Based on Weibull Distribution and Modified RBI Theory

针对目前氢损伤失效机理无法量化到失效概率中的问题,更加准确、全面地分析加氢母站设备可靠性,修正经典基于风险的检验(risk based inspection,RBI)理论进行加氢母站设备的可靠性分析,结合双参数韦伯分布、极大似然估计统计分析设备同类失效概率。针对加氢母站设备特有失效机理,创新性地提出氢损伤修正因子与其定量分析方法,整体探讨了加氢母站设备可靠性。结果表明:修正RBI理论的泄漏孔径分类、结合双参数韦伯分布与极大似然估计计算同类失效概率更符合实际工况;结合氢损伤修正因子可得出氢设备失效概率值,氢损伤修正因子敏感性分析表明,氢损伤修正因子对设备失效概率呈正相关,建议对氢设备应采取一些具体措施进行预防性维护,对加氢母站设备安全运营管理与预防决策有重要意义。

Aiming at the problem that the failure mechanism of hydrogen damage cannot be quantified into the failure probability at present,the reliability of hydrogenation mother station equipment was analyzed more accurately and comprehensively.The classic risk based inspection(RBI)theory was modified to analyze the reliability of the hydrogen refueling mother station equipment,and the failure probability of the same kind of equipment was statistically analyzed by combining the two parameter Weibull distribution and maximum likelihood estimation.Aiming at the unique failure mechanism of the hydrogenation master station equipment,the hydrogen damage correction factor and its quantitative analysis method were innovatively proposed,and the reliability of the hydrogenation master station equipment was discussed as a whole.The results show that the leakage aperture classification of the modified RBI theory,combined with the two parameter Weibull distribution and maximum likelihood estimation to calculate the similar failure probability is more in line with the actual working conditions.Combined with the hydrogen damage correction factor,the failure probability value of hydrogen equipment can be obtained.The sensitivity analysis of the hydrogen damage correction factor shows that the hydrogen damage correction factor has a positive correlation with the failure probability of the equipment.It is suggested that some specific measures should be taken for preventive maintenance of the hydrogen equipment,which is of great significance to the safe operation management and preventive decision-making of the equipment in the hydrogenation parent station.