碳中和引发的大国博弈规则重塑——基于碳约束下的生产转型与国力升级视角

Reshaping the Rules of Great Power Game Caused by Carbon Neutrality:A Perspective from Production Transformation and National Power Upgrading Under Carbon Constraints

实现碳中和已成为21世纪全球应对气候变化的核心举措与国际政治的中心议题。应对气候变化对国际政治规则的影响,在碳中和下呈现出由生产转型到国力升级再到秩序变迁的演化路径——碳排放增量空间约束迫使资源利用与生产方式发生转变,使大国的综合国力依赖于运用碳排放空间的能力和效率。碳中和主导的国力升级加快了气候治理国际共识的达成,进而带动了贸易、金融、能源等领域博弈规则的“脱碳化”趋势,进一步引发国际秩序的变迁和重塑,并反映为碳中和下的综合国力差距、气候应对效率差异、气候责任划分争议等多重矛盾。根据这一演化路径,气候话语权将成为大国话语权的核心。面对气候治理格局的复杂性,作为大国博弈重要参与者的中国,应在碳中和带来的国际挑战和竞争中挖掘生产活动的转型机遇,重点处理好经济发展与环境保护之间的复杂关系,探索中国特色低碳发展路径。

Achieving carbon neutrality has become the core measure of the global response to climate change and the central issue of international politics in the 21st century.The impact of climate change on international political rules has resulted in an evolutionary path,starting from production transformation to national power upgrading,and eventually leading to order changes under carbon neutrality.The constraints of carbon emission increment necessitate transformations in resource utilization and production methods,rendering a nation's comprehensive strength increasingly reliant on its ability and efficiency in carbon emission management.The ascent of carbon neutrality-driven national strength has accelerated the attainment of international consensus on climate governance,consequently propelling the"decarbonization"trend in areas like trade,finance,energy,and further instigating shifts and reshaping of international order.These changes have brought forth multiple contradictions,such as disparities in comprehensive national strength under carbon neutrality,differences in climate response efficiency,and disputes over climate responsibilities.In light of this evolutionary path,the discourse power of climate will become the core of the discourse power of major countries.As a significant participant in the global great power game,China should seize the opportunities for productive transformation amid the international challenges and competitions engendered by carbon neutrality.Emphasizing the delicate balance between economic development and environmental governance,China should strive to explore a path of low-carbon development with distinctive Chinese characteristics.