“诺曼底模式”:“法德轴心”的作用及其条件性

The“Normandy Format”:The Role and Conditionality of Franco-German Axis

“诺曼底模式”是欧洲核心国家法国、德国就和平解决顿巴斯问题而提出的政治方案,也是它们对俄采取谨慎接触外交的具体体现。维持高层对话、由欧安组织进行第三方监督,以及法德居中调解均是具有鲜明欧洲特色的危机管理方式。这一模式一度将2014年的俄乌对抗冻结在顿巴斯地区,主张与俄罗斯保持接触和对话,它是基于现实主义均衡理论的“法国模式”与自由主义相互依赖理论的“德国模式”共同作用的产物。本文全面剖析“诺曼底模式”取得阶段性成功的原因,认为除法国、德国的协调作用外,历史造就的四个外部条件发挥了关键作用,包括美国的委托授权和英国的袖手旁观、俄罗斯的认可和忍耐、乌克兰的无奈顺从,以及波兰等中东欧国家的私下不满。鉴于乌克兰后来无意履行协议且对“诺曼底模式”失去兴趣,俄罗斯对法、德协调失去战略耐心,美国接管并主导西方的对俄政策,波兰等中东欧国家倾向依赖美国和北约采取对俄强硬的态度,“诺曼底模式”随着2022年乌克兰危机的全面升级无力延续。在地缘政治的冲击下,法、德主导的制度性安排无法继续生效,但未来俄乌冲突发展到和平谈判和战后维和、重建阶段,改良升级后的“诺曼底模式”依然可以作为终结这场冲突的一个重要选项。

The“Normandy Format”is a political solution for the peaceful resolution of the Donbass issue by the core European countries France and Germany,and also a manifestation of their cautious engagement diplomacy with Russia.Maintaining high-level dialogue,third-party supervision by the OSCE,and mediation by France and Germany are all crisis management methods with distinct European characteristics.The“Normandy Format”once froze the 2014 Ukraine Crisis in the Donbas region.The reason for the phased success of the“Normandy Format”is not only due to the coordinating role of France and Germany,but also due to four external factors:the authorization of the United States and the inaction of the United Kingdom;Russia's recognition and patience;Ukraine's helpless obedience;The silence of Central and Eastern European countries.In 2022,significant changes have occurred in all four external conditions:Ukraine has no intention of fulfilling the agreement;Russia loses strategic patience with coordination;The US takes over and dominates Western policies towards Russia;Poland and other Central and Eastern European countries rely on the United States and NATO to adopt a tough attitude towards Russia.Under the impact of geopolitics,institutional arrangements led by France and Germany cannot continue to take effect.However,when the future Russia-Ukraine Conflict reaches the stage of peace negotiations,post-war peacekeeping,and reconstruction,the improved and upgraded“Normandy Format”can still be an important option to end this conflict.