俄罗斯“通实力”发展水平评估

An Evaluation of Russia's“Connectivity Power”

本文在分析“通实力”概念的基础上,从吸引力、顺应力、影响力、集聚力和阻通力五个维度,构建了由16个二级指标和45个三级指标组成的俄罗斯“通实力”测算体系,采用熵权TOPSIS法对俄罗斯“通实力”发展水平进行综合评估。研究表明,1995~2019年俄罗斯“通实力”水平整体实现较好提升,但受经济转型和相关政策影响,经历了持续下降、缓慢提振、全面提速和上升缓滞四个发展阶段。吸引力和阻通力在推动俄罗斯互联互通发展中发挥了关键作用,未来应重点关注集聚力、顺应力和影响力水平的提升。俄罗斯“通实力”发展的优势主要体现在自然资源和地理区位两个方面,劣势主要为内部经济结构束缚和外部经济制裁。在乌克兰危机全面升级背景下,俄罗斯“通实力”发展或将出现断崖式下滑,甚至对全球互联互通格局产生颠覆性影响。

Based on the analysis of the concept of“connectivity power”,thisarticle constructs a system of measuring Russia's“connectivity power”consisting of 16 secondary indicators and 45 tertiary indicators in five dimensions:attractiveness,compatibility,influence,cohesion and resistance.The study found that the overall level of Russia's“connectivity power”has improved from 1995 to 2019,but due to the economic transition and related policies,it has gone through four stages of development:continuous decline,slow revival,full acceleration and slow rise.Attractiveness and resistance play a key role in driving Russia's connectivity development,and the future should focus on improving the level of compatibility,cohesion and influence.The advantages of Russia's“connectivity power”development are mainly reflected in natural resources and geographical location,while the disadvantages are mainly internal economic structural constraints and external economic sanctions.Against the backdrop of the escalating crisis in Ukraine,the development of Russia's“connectivity power”may decline precipitously and even have a disruptive impact on the global connectivity.